Welshboy
Irregular gambler but like a punt on the racing (mainly flat but enjoy the big jumps festivals) and occasionally on the footy. Always been a fan of the long shot, anything short of 5/1 struggles to get my interest!
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Welshboy's Tips History
10 May 2024
17:10 5:10 Ascot
Hedonista
Daily Racing
81 EW
@8.00
Win
60
Hedonista for Ed Walker looks potentially well treated off 76 with Joe Leavy claiming 5lb -its an apprentice race so plenty of claims here - and I think she's possibly got more upside than most of these with the probable exception of the odds on fav, Bailey's Khelstar who is well in under a penalty and very hard to assess.
15:30 3:30 Ascot
Grand Traverse
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@12.00
Lose
-100
Grand Traverse needs to put his last performance behind him but I'm confident that the last run was probably impacted heavily by the draw at Newbury. Prior to that, the ex-Andre Fabre horse had bolted up at Newcastle on his first UK start which was also his first try at 6f. I'm not sure how much he beat but he recorded an RPR of 104 and for a £38k purchase, looks exceptionally good value. He was given an easyish time LTO when the draw went against him, the best of the low drawn horses being 9th placed Divina Libra who won at Chester this week. Put a line through that and at 11/1, this could be exceptional value at a track that might suit.
13:40 1:40 Market Rasen
Record Art
Daily Racing
50 EWNB
@41.00
Lose
-100
This is a bit of a leap of faith but a comment in the racing post left me thinking this could be an interesting runner on summer ground off a nice mark. His stable debut was over 2 miles on good to soft last August and he finished 3rd behind a couple of 105-110 type horses in a Novice Hurdle. Off a break, he ran at Uttoxeter on soft ground going off 100/1 in a maiden hurdle last time out likely needing the run and is dropped 2lb which seems nice enough. Today he makes his handicap debut and is hugely unexposed, with the talented Jack Hogan taking the ride (he caught the eye when winning on one earlier this week when the saddle slipped) and in a conditional jockey's race, the smarter jocks always catch the eye. The fact he probably know this horse well as he's Fergal O'Brien's conditional is an added bonus.
And the comment that caught my eye after the Worcester run..."he ought to come on for this and there's a chance he could be about to show us what he's made of".
Subtotal-140
03 May 2024
15:15 3:15 Goodwood
Indian Creak
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@26.00
Lose
-50
I think Indian Creak looks very well treated based in the 3:15 at Goodwood today and I would make him around a 10/1 shot in my book so at 25s, he looks solid value. My case would be on his improvement from first to second run last year, 23lb on RPRs, and if replicating that sort of improvement again, he would be running to mid to high 90s off a mark of 87 with a 5lb claimer on board who knows the horse well. She replaced David Probert on the winning run 2nd time out last year so thats an eyecatcher. The one to beat should be Spanish Star, winner of this race last year and he might be the one I'd look to take out in the w/o markets.
13:40 1:40 Musselburgh
Northerner
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 7.00 used instead of 6.50 takenBOG
@7.00
Win
12
I quite like the look of Northerner to progress past the now 4 race maiden Obligatory and can go close with a run under his belt on ground that might have been a bit soft at Catterick on his recent return. At 11/2 I think he's quite an attractive betting proposition with only 5 runners.
Subtotal-38
02 May 2024
14:22 2:22 Ayr
Aconcagua Mountain
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@5.50
Lose
-100
This race looks a nice set up today for Iain Jardine's sprint handicapper who holds a smart record over C&D winning and placing in 2 runs off much higher marks that todays. He goes off 49 and with Andrew Mullen replacing an inexperienced claimer and having run consistently well on turf in the past, I think he should be primed for a good run. There's been money down for Rebecca Menzies in-form Golden Rainbow who is a clear threat and Paul Midgely's sprinters are always respected but I think my selection could be a stone well in if running to late 2023 turf form so rates a good bet at 9/2.
Subtotal-100
30 April 2024
17:00 5:00 Yarmouth
Baileys Polka Dot
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@51.00
Lose
-50
I think this horse from Amy Murphy's yard looks hugely over-priced at 50/1. This horse possibly has the classiest form lines in the field, finishing less than 4l behind George Boughey's Graceful Thunder now rated 99 and then again only around 4l back from the likes of Hala Emaraaty and Hedge Fund who are both rated in the 90s in an end of season listed race at Deauville. The recent wind op, removal of headgear and booking of SDS all look interesting and I'm willing to take an end of month punt that this one can outrun her odds off a mark of 80.
16:30 4:25 Yarmouth
Dreamrocker
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@8.00
Lose
-50
Dreamrocker makes her seasonal debut today in an open looking handicap but she looks unexposed compared to many of her rivals and I'd make her around a 4/1 chance so happy to take some of the 7/1 on offer each way. She's 1/1 on turf and looks very fairly treated off 73 and I think the yard seem to rate her a bit more highly than that. The biggest threats might be Great Blasket and Mobaashr but I think they might have to both be on their A game to win here.
14:25 2:25 Brighton
Dayman
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Lose
-50
This looks a fairly open race, with Uncle Dick surprisingly left in this race (entered over a mile tomorrow which looks more suitable) and last year's winner Liangel Hope out of form and maybe needing it quicker. I'm willing to go for one at a big price, DFD's Dayman. He's a gelding and has been campaigned entirely on the AW since moving to this yard but finds himself on a mark of 73 over a trip that will suit. Owen Lewis takes off a valuable 5lb and I think he could easily run into a place if taking to the track.
Subtotal-150
29 April 2024
14:45 2:45 Ayr
Doon The Glen
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.33
Lose
-50
I put this horse straight in the tracker (as I'm sure many did) on Saturday after a really eyecatching performance. He was beaten by Dandy's Gold who looked well treated on a track and trip that clearly suit him but today's selection had to do a lot wrong not to beat him and was unlucky at various points too. I think off the same mark and with Amie Waugh booked to take off 3lb, it looks like they are taking no chances and want this to go in before his mark gets revised upwards. He's my nap today.
Subtotal-50
26 April 2024
20:30 8:30 Newcastle
Never This Way
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@17.00
Lose
-50
A couple of long shots today but this one is a nice enough horse bought out of William Haggas' yard and now with Ruth Carr. The yard, having started the season well, are now having a quiet patch but this one could be on a nice mark having needed his reappearance post gelding and running through the mud on his yard debut. This should suit better although I do wonder if 6f will be his trip but No Nay Never's are rarely short on speed so I think he could go close at a big price tonight.
20:15 8:15 Chepstow
Up For Parol
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@13.00
Win
70
Up for Parol was 3rd in last years Lanzarote off 129 and off 121 today with Will Featherstone taking off 10lb, he could be a cracking bet stepping up to 3m for the first time. The step up is interesting as he beat his very handy now-stablemate, Git Maker in his Irish point with Whacker Clan back in 3rd. Stamina should be there and whilst he may not have the speed of days gone by, this could work well over today's trip. At 12/1 he looks too big a price to ignore with firms paying 4 places.
Subtotal20
24 April 2024
18:25 6:25 Taunton
Jaramillo
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@21.00
Lose
-50
Jaramillo looks an exceptional price tonight in the 6.25 with the yard having been very patient waiting for good dry ground. The price I was hoping for was around 8/1 as it looks a competitive heat so off his last winning mark of 109, trip and track which should be fine and nicely freshened up, I'm happy to take a chance at 20/1 each way, although I'm a little bit disappointed that no firm has priced up 4 places a bit more competitively than the 12s on offer from Sky and 365.
Subtotal-50
22 April 2024
20:00 Middlesbrough v Leeds
Middlesbrough
50 WIN
@4.75
Lose
-50
This is a purely value based bet as I think Boro look over priced based on the real level of form. Leeds are pushing for promotion and playing well but I think this will be a tough test of their ability and at nearly 4/1 the home side are worth a small interest.
16:30 4:30 Hexham
Lewa House
Daily Racing
75 EWNAPNOTETip made at odds of 7.00 on 21/04 at 22:500.10 deduction for Haveyougotmymoney@7.50 withdrawn at 07:53R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 6.00 x (1-0.10) = 6.40
@6.40
Win
6
Lewa House has a record of 1st and 2nd over course and distance and looks certain to be suited by conditions tomorrow. It'll be the first time he's dropped into the 70s on ORs and off 79, with Bruce Lynn taking off a potentially valuable 3lb, he looks treated to go very close. This years form saw him run Follow Charlie close on 2 Jan, that horse beating him again in March and now rated 15lb better than that first encounter. The trip will have stretched Lewa on his second run of 2024 and then finding Follow Charlie and one of Nick Alexander's too good at Ayr last time is no bad thing, given the ground wouldn't have been in his favour. No excuses for this one tomorrow, although its an open race, I would hope he shouldn't be out of the first 3.
16:25 3:55 Pontefract
Highfield Viking
Daily Racing
50 EWNB
@5.00
Lose
-100
I really like the formline of Do I Dream who won LTO (I somehow missed it) after being beaten here on her previous run by Wintercrack but I think Highfield Viking is one to follow, looking very impressive in first time blinkers and as a half brother to the amazing Highfield Princess, may just be an improver with age. I was slightly surprised to see him nudged up on 4lbs for that win as it was visually quite impressive and I think he has the potential to go in again tomorrow.
Subtotal-144
19 April 2024
19:45 7:45 Bath
Covert Mission
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@SP
Lose
-50
A late go on Covert Mission who has run well in this race before. Would've liked a bit more cut but on a good mark and should go close.
Subtotal-50
18 April 2024
15:50 3:50 Cheltenham
Lightening Mahler
Daily Racing
50 EWNB
@12.00
Lose
-100
This is really a ground based punt on one that looks unexposed and is a bit of an each way thief's price given the short price on justified fav, Golden Ace. LM is proven on good, having won on decent ground at Huntingdon last month and with Dan Skelton chasing down Willie Mullins for the title, this one has a few entries over the next 2 weeks. Looks like a typical Skelton 'spring' horse and if he can place at 11/1 I'll take the small profit.
15:00 3:00 Newmarket
Shouldvebeenaring
Daily Racing
200 EWNAP
@4.50
Lose
-400
This will be too short for some as an each way bet at 7/2 but I'm on the risk averse side and from a good draw and with the pipe opener at Wolvo in the Lady Wulfruna having gone well (3rd and noted as an apparent prep for today's race) under his belt, I think he's a much bigger price that he should be with his Foray and Sprint Cup placings fresh enough in the mind. I'd have expected him to be around the 2/1 mark so this looks nice value.
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Subtotal-500
16 April 2024
14:55 2:55 Newmarket
Dutch Decoy
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@11.00
Win
50
Dutch Decoy is expected to come on a lot for his pipe opener in the Lincoln were the ground would have been too heavy. He was incredibly unlucky last year, either in terms of the ground (the quicker the better) or the draw (was in the car park when getting his favoured ground on more than one occassion). The ground is an unknown today but is currently good, so if it rides like that, the track, trip and race type should all suit and he appears to have a nice enough draw. He's consistent at HQ, finishing in the top 5 (and 6th in the 34 runner Cambridgeshire) on 3 of his 4 runs, so this looks a solid each way.
13:50 1:50 Newmarket
Lethal Nymph
Daily Racing
50 EWNB
@15.00
Lose
-100
Lethal Nymph was picked up by shrewd sprint owner/trainer combination Taylor's Bloodstock and Paul Midgely last October for 85k and runs in a competitive 5f handicap today. Dream Composer is a justified fav, but the race looks open for the remainder and the selection proved his wellbeing for new connections when following up on a pipe opener in Feb with a cracking 3rd to stablemate Albasheer in March at Newcastle. He was drawn poorly that day and flew home nicely, with the 2nd having run well in a £100k race on AW finals day since. That was the selections first go at the trip and he looks well treated off 89. At 14/1 I think he's a cracking ew bet with the only concern the lack of track experience.
Subtotal-50
15 April 2024
16:50 4:50 Windsor
Mudskipper
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@5.00
Lose
-100
Mudskipper looked a classy horse when last seen and now following a long injury break, he looks the type to improve with age and should get ground that suits today (likes a bit of give rather than the heavy ground favoured by many of the stables runners). At around 4/1, he's the best horse in the field and if tuned up, should go close from a decent draw. I've played a bit safe with the 4pl so hoping its not just a 'fitness run'.
Subtotal-100
12 April 2024
20:00 8:00 Southwell
Liveandletlive
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@7.00
Lose
-100
I've tipped a couple of Muir and Grassick horses over the last couple of days and they've won at 8/1 and 5/1 building on a run prior to that of 112 with their previous 3 runners. This one has a similar profile, likely to do well in handicap company and on a nice starting mark for this step up to a mile. I'm quite happy to keep following the yard while they are on a run like they are and I expected this to be somewhere around 7/2 or 4/1 so at double the former with Skybet (7/1 3pl) I think he's a cracking ew bet.
Subtotal-100
11 April 2024
17:15 5:15 Aintree
Diva Luna
Daily Racing
50 EWNBNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@8.00
Win
420
Diva Luna finished second in a point last October proving her liking for slow ground and I am taking the fact that Derek O'Connor took the ride as meaning she was there for an education rather than a hard ride. The fact she was thrown into a listed race on rules debut shows the regard in which she's held and Ben Pauling has had this race in mind for a while, bringing her into it fresh and hopefully ready to go. She's a cracking bet with Skybet at 13/2 ew 5 places in my opinion.
16:50 4:50 Southwell
Savvy Brilliance
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
A bit like Road to Wembley, this horse looks to be firmly on the upgrade and only 2lb higher than when winning on first try over this distance can go well again today. He didn't get the easiest of trips on that occassion and should come on for that run and his shrewd yard may well still have a bit more fun with him.
16:15 4:15 Southwell
Mustajaab
Daily Racing
50 EWNAP
@6.00
Win
300
This is an open looking handicap but its hard to get away from the yard form of Muir and Grassick at the moment (1121 in the last fortnight including two winners on seasonal debut). This one has form for it too, winning over C&D off 2lb lower on last years seasonal debut. A repeat of that form should see him go close here and money back first 4 is a nice bit of insurance. He's my best bet today.
15:40 3:40 Southwell
Road To Wembley
Daily Racing
52 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-52
Very surprised this horse of Fergie's isnt odds on even with the big step in class. Hits me as a horse that still has a fair bit in hand under his 6lb penalty and we might find out more today as to where the limit of his abilities lies.
Subtotal618
10 April 2024
20:30 8:30 Kempton
Mrs Twig
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@10.00
Win
270
This looks a tricky race and Nivelle's Magic was in my tracker when it when it went the long way round at Lingfield last July but she's now 13lb higher and is yet to prove that she can win off as high as this. Fravanco has a good shout on his 2nd to Tortured Soul and Mr Boson has first time headgear but my choice as a decent ew play is Mrs Twig for the in form Grassick and Muir combo. She needs to show she can go well off a break but is reported to be in great nick and looks well treated off 62. Her under par runs have both been on soft and I would expect her to be challenging for the places and potentially a win tonight but also to come on for the run.
16:45 4:45 Wolverhampton
Barleybrown
Daily Racing
76 EWNAP
@8.00
Win
30
The move from Eve J-H to Ruth Carr seems to have done no harm to Barleybrown and he ran a cracking race behind a solid yardstick, Drakeholes over 7f in a classified at Newcastle recently. That was his first run on the AW and he took to it well and shaped as if the return to a mile would do the trick. He's drawn in 2 and the yard are still going well (>20% strike rate in last 2 weeks) and at around 11/2 4 places, he looks a great ew bet in a 10 runner field (Skybet). Happy to take the 7/1 on offer here for 3 places as well though and he's my bet of the day today.
The biggest dangers may prove to be Shaka, who unseated when fav LTO and Ibiza Rocks, who at 16s looks an attractive ew bet with his mark having dropped a lot over the last year and now looking very well treated. I'll be having smaller plays on those two and a small combi tricast.
Subtotal300
09 April 2024
16:15 4:15 Thirsk
Zargun
Daily Racing
50 EWNB
@10.00
Lose
-100
I might regret not tipping Showalong here on 2nd run back after a break but he was only 6th in the race that Zargun won at Donny a couple of weeks ago. I've actually backed both, cover bet 5 places with Skybet at 11/4 (Showalong) and 13/2 (Zargun). Zargun has a 6lb rise to cope with but had dropped from a mark in the 100s over a couple of years primarily running on the AW. He hosed up at Donny and could still be very well treated as the form of that race is working out very well already. Maharajas Express has won since and Burj Malinka has just won earlier on this card. At 9/1 he's got a cracking ew shout.
14:15 2:15 Thirsk
Atherstone Warrior
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.25
Win
112
This looks a nice price as I'd make this one fav as he finished a couple of lengths ahead of the favourite from Keatleys in the Brocklesby. He raced prominently that day and the race suited closers so I think that run can be marked up and he ran green too, hanging at times, so should improve for the experience.
I think the Burke horse will improve for this; his 2yo's are reported to be a bit behind this season and at 4/1, he looks short enough in the market. At the prices (365 are 5/2 boosted), Atherstone Warrior looks a nice bet. I think the 11/8 cover bet 2 places with the same firm is a very good bet.
13:30 1:30 Deauville
Romantic Style
Daily Racing
25 EW
@4.70
Win
115
I'm looking to take on (at least one of) the top 2 in the market here with bottomless ground likely at Chantilly today. Romantic Style has very solid form from the Bosra Sham on heavy ground and Charlie Appleby's horses are going well at the start of this season when sent on a mission.
The Menusier horse is interesting and will go on the ground but I think she might come on for the run and the fav looks solid, but hasnt run on ground like this and is very short in the market.
An ew at 13/2 looks a nice angle here.
Subtotal127
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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.
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