c4stle
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c4stle's Tips History
11 May 2024
15:15 3:15 Haydock
Lark In The Mornin
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.50
Lose
-50
There's enough substance to the Fred Winter form to make Lark In The Mornin look well treated from a mark of 130, with the 4th bolting up in a Punchestown handicap next time, and others posting credible efforts some in Graded company. I fancied the Joseph O'Brien runner in novice company last time when pulled out because of the ground but no such concerns here - connections are adamant he's a better horse on quick ground and if that's the case an 8lbs rise could still be lenient.
1 member found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Lingfield
Salamanca
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@21.00
Lose
-50
I'm inclined to look positively on the form of Salamanca Novice Stakes 2nd last time despite the winner that day (neck in front) bombing out at Listed level since. That run was too bad to be true but the 3rd 2.5L behind Salamanca bolted up by 13L next time, albeit down in grade. Connections have a habit of springing a bit of a surprise and with the O'Brien pair both being comprehensively beaten last time I'm happy to give Salamanca a chance stepping up in trip. Holds plenty of fancy entries (as you'd expect) and this son of Sea The Stars can improve again on just his 3rd start.
14:40 2:40 Ascot
Hickory
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction
@10.00
Win
20
Doesn't look a whole load of pace on offer here but Zero Carbon will go forward from stall 3 which could favour the low side of the draw. Hickory could get a nice pull into the race from stall 6 and has run well on two occasions over C&D, first finishing 0.5L behind Baradar from a mark of 87 and then 3rd behind Quinault when sent off fav from a mark of 89. On the wrong side next time so happy to draw a line through that and he goes today from 89 having run well on the AW on seasonal reappearance. Still lightly raced despite being a 6yo having missed over 2 years as a youngster and no surprise if he can continue this season on an upwards curve in conditions which should be fine (good or better).
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-80
10 May 2024
15:40 3:40 Chester
Forza Orta
Daily Racing
25 EWNAP
@12.00
Lose
-50
His best performance came when stepped up to 16f at York, winning from a mark of 86 and with Aztec Empire in behind. 1lb worse off with that rival for a neck winning margin but hugely unexposed at staying trips and could have more to offer beyond 2m. Not at his best the last twice but possible that trip is too sharp these days and he's just 3lbs above his last winning mark with the quick ground likely to suit.
14:35 2:35 Chester
City Streak
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTETip made at odds of 7.00 on 08/05 at 20:380.20 deduction for Bolster@5.00 withdrawn at 09:290.25 deduction for Botanical @3.500 withdrawn at 14:19R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 6.00 x (1-0.45) = 4.30
@4.30
Win
165
Boasts a good record here, finishing 2nd and 1st from two visits here - the win coming from a mark of 84 under todays jockey. Has risen in the weights since but good 2nd LTO from the same mark as today (91) , with the 3rd placed horse winning a handicap by 5.5L from the same mark next time. Stable in good form and won't mind conditions.
Subtotal115
09 May 2024
15:40 3:40 Chester
Arrest
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.50
Lose
-50
If Arrest simply needed he's reappearance (as connections believe) then he looks the one to beat at this trip and in these conditions. Won the Vase here last year before finishing 2nd in the St Leger over 14f and with the ground on the quick side he should have too much for Point Lonsdale.
1 member found this comment useful
14:35 2:35 Chester
Celtic Warrior
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@7.00
Lose
-50
The favourite could be hard to beat but this is a handicap and he has to concede weight all round, including 11lbs to Celtic Warrior. Oisin Murphy keeps the ride having won on the all weather last time, putting up a bold show from the front. Those tactics are so often profitable here particularly from a low draw (Celtic Warrior stall 2) and he can get his nose in front on return to handicap company.
1 member found this comment useful
13:30 1:30 Chester
Democracy Dilemma
Daily Racing
50 WINNBNOTETip made at odds of 7.00 on 07/05 at 20:370.10 deduction for Radio Goo Goo@10.00 withdrawn at 10:33R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 6.00 x (1-0.10) = 6.40
@6.40
Win
270
Two wins from three efforts over C&D, winning at this meeting last year from a mark of 92. Good run in Meydan two starts back which suggests that this mark of 97 is still within reach, and he's likely to go forward from a low draw which has historically been a huge positive at Chester.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal170
08 May 2024
14:35 2:35 Chester
Kings Merchant 0.00
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@5.00
Lose
-50
Forward going sort from a low draw (stall 1) and the form of his win last time has been franked with the runner up winning twice since and now rated 73. Kings Merchant goes today from a mark of 75 on handicap debut but was giving away 5lbs last time in novice company and was travelling strongly at the line to suggest this mark is more than workable.
1 member found this comment useful
14:05 2:05 Chester
Lady Lightning
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@6.00
Lose
-50
Made most to win cosily on debut last time, and although the form hasn't been franked since repeat tactics at a track where it so often pays to be up with the pace could yield the same result. Few 2yo winners in the family so clearly a promiscuous bunch and the low draw is a big plus over this C&D.
1 member found this comment useful
13:30 1:30 Chester
Old Chums
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@7.00
Lose
-50
In 6f contests at Chester it typically pays to be ridden prominently and particularly from a low draw. Old Chums catches the eye from stall 2 for Tom Dascombe who won this in 2021 and effectively in 2022 after handing over the reigns to Hugo Palmer. Has shown strong level of form since the fitting of cheekpieces, winning 2 and finishing 2nd the last twice latterly from a mark of 70. 2lbs higher today but front two were clear of the rest and a mark of 72 should still be workable.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-150
06 May 2024
16:10 4:10 Curragh
Maxux
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.75
Lose
-50
Ran really well on seasonal reappearance to finish just a neck behind the reopposing White Birch. In receipt of 3lbs from that rival today and with ground more in her favour (White Birch strong on heavy ground whereas Maxux better on yielding) she may not need to imrove to get her nose in front at these weights.
Subtotal-50
05 May 2024
15:40 3:40 Newmarket
Darnation
Daily Racing
25 EW
@41.00
Lose
-50
Her trainer feels that she's at her best on a soft surface and whilst her form shows she handles it well I don't think there's enough evidence that she doesn't perform on quicker ground. Happy to forgive an underpar run in Paris last time out and to put my trust in the form she showed with cut in the ground, including beating Rockfel winner Carla's Way and Nell Gwynne winner Pretty Crystal, the latter reposing here. If coping with conditions she's massively overpriced on the bare form.
2 members found this comment useful
15:00 3:00 Newmarket
Adjuvant
Daily Racing
25 EWNB
@15.00
Lose
-50
Adjuvant was a neck 2nd in this last year from a mark of 90, before winning back over C&D next time on quicker ground. That takes his record here to 4-1-2-1 and although his flat form tailed off towards the end of the season he's shown some promise over hurdles the last twice. Freshened up since, he goes well fresh (including his 2nd here last year) and should be in the mix from todays mark of 95 in conditions he should relish.
14:25 2:25 Newmarket
Astral Beau
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@9.50
Lose
-50
Astral Beau finished 3rd in this race last year behind two subsequent Group 1 winners. Nothing on that quality in this field today, with the Gosden filly yet to fully convince and the rest looking not quite top class. A repeat of her run last year could be enough to win this and she could spring a slight surprise from the front.
13:50 1:50 Newmarket
Winter Snowfall
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.50
Lose
-50
Makes her turf debut today but we saw with the Godolphin Guineas winner yesterday that's no barrier to success. The form of her win LTO couldn't have worked out better, with the runner up scoring by 12L next time and firmly in the Oaks picture. Front two pulled well clear that day and this daughter of Galileo can take this step up in class en route to bigger things.
Subtotal-200
04 May 2024
17:25 5:25 Punchestown
Waterford Whispers
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.00
Lose
-50
The Martin Pipe form looks very good, with 3 of the 4 Irish novices that pulled clear of the rest all running with credit since. The winner finished 3rd in a Grade 1 hurdle, the 3rd bolted up in a novice hurdle at Ayr and the 4th finished 2nd in a handicap hurdle here earlier in the week from 1lb high. Waterford Whispers finished 2nd that day and goes from 2lbs higher here, with quicker ground being the only question mark.
15:42 3:42 Punchestown
Ashroe Diamond
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@15.00
Lose
-50
Obviously Lossiemouth looks to set the standard having bolted up on trials day and then comfortably winning the Mares Hurdle at Cheltenham last time on heavy ground. We've seen some strange results this time of year and if she doesn't show her peak effort I think Ashroe Diamond could be one to spring a surprise. Too bad to be true last time when pulling up at Cheltenham on heavy ground but her best performances have come on a quicker surface and although she's unraced at Punchestown she has posted some good form including behind Stayers Hurdle winner Teahupoo and Impaire Est Passe in the Hattons Grace and bolting up in a Grade 1 hurdle on her final start at Fairyhouse last season. Patrick keeps the ride and with conditions more suitable she could take the big prize.
1 member found this comment useful
15:35 3:35 Newmarket
Alyanaabi
Daily Racing
25 EW
@19.00
Lose
-50
Has had two starts at Newmarket, winning the Group 3 Tatterstall Stakes before finishing 3.5L behind City Of Troy in the Dewhurst. No chance with the winner that day who made all from the front, but I do fancy he can reverse form with the second fav Rosallion who beat the selection at Ascot but Alyanaabi didn't get a clear run on just his 2nd career start and looks to have improved since. Looks plenty of pace on offer so his patient running style could suit at a track he's gone well at in the past.
1 member found this comment useful
15:20 3:20 Goodwood
Sumo Sam
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.88
Lose
-50
Everything is in place to expect a big performance from Sumo Sam. Goes well fresh and will love conditions having won a Group 2 here over 14f in the mud when making all. Has to concede a 7lbs penalty but that's because she's clearly the best filly in the race and I'd expect Hollie Doyle to bowl out from the front and the rest to be languishing in behind at the finish.
14:55 2:55 Newmarket
Twilight Calls
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@5.50
Lose
-50
This race last year was his only poor effort at Newmarket and that came on soft ground so he had a valid excuse. His three other runs here have yielded results of 1-1-5 (1.25L off 1st) and he's posted credible efforts at a higher grade which suggests this Group 3 is within reach back on a quicker surface.
1 member found this comment useful
14:20 2:20 Newmarket
Theoryofeverything
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.50
Lose
-50
Looked potentially top class when winning his novice by 6L on debut but hasn't quite delivered on that promise yet despite finishing 3rd in the Greenham behind Isaac Shelby and Charyn. Bought out of the Gosden yard by David O'Meara and ran well on seasonal reappearance when finishing 4th without a clear run. Same mark today and he's reopposing the first two the last day, both of who should go forward from their low draws and give him a strong tow into the race from stall 3.
1 member found this comment useful
13:45 1:45 Newmarket
Chairmanoftheboard
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 12.00 used instead of 10.00 takenBOG
@12.00
Win
30
2nd in this race last year from 2lbs higher and bounced back from a below par reappearance to finish 2nd at Newbury last time from the same mark of 86. Looks to have a good draw (stall 12) with Abate going forward from stall 13 and although he's an 8yo he's a consistent sort that's weighted to go well in conditions which will suit.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-270
03 May 2024
19:05 7:05 Punchestown
Lark In The Mornin
Daily Racing
50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@3.75
Void
0
I'm putting my faith in the Fred Winter form which has had a few boosts so far this week, including Nara (7th) finishing 3rd on Thursday and Harsh (4th) winning a handicap hurdle on Wednesday from a mark of 119. Probably a push to say Pigeon House (9th) franked the form when winning today from 118 but it's certainly no bad thing. The O'Brien team have won this with a 4yo in the past and having been adamant Lark In The Mornin will appreciate better ground and I think he can be competitive in Novice company at a track he's gone well before (form figures 2-3 in two big field handicaps).
17:25 5:25 Punchestown
Its On The Line
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.00
Win
100
Won this last year after falling at Aintree but comes into this years renewal in much better form, having been pipped in the Cheltenham Foxhunters before making amends in the Aintree edition over 21f. Steps back up in trip but we know that suits and I think he has the ability to outclass this field.
16:15 4:15 Punchestown
Perceval Legallois
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@5.50
Lose
-50
Fell when challenging strongly on handicap debut alongside Heart Wood who is now rated 150 after running with credit in Graded company since. He's been raised 2lbs for that effort which looks more than fair and runs here from just 137 today. Won't mind any rain that falls and simply should have much more scope from todays mark than Master Policeman should from a mark of 149, carrying top weight. Cromwell team have had a good start to the Punchestown Festival and can continue JP McManus' run of promising young staying chasers.
1 member found this comment useful
16:10 4:10 Newmarket
Castle Way
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@4.00
Lose
-50
Happy to forgive his reappearance in the Middle East which wasn't a poor run in a Group 2 but probably a notch below what he's shown in the UK last year. Two from two on the Rowley Mile and also has a win over Tower Of London on the July course. Stable in flying form and he's Buick's pick. A former Group 3 winner who can go close up in grade in a small field n
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal0
02 May 2024
19:05 7:05 Punchestown
Spindleberry
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.00
Lose
-50
Even money looks very fair for this mare who finished close behind Jade Du Grugy last time in Grade 1 company on just her 2nd hurdle start. Had some good yardsticks in behind including 140-rated Jetara and the drop back in trip doesn't hold concerns.
18:35 6:35 Punchestown
Churchstonewarrior
Daily Racing
25 EW
@23.00
Lose
-50
Churchstonewarrior reverts to hurdles for the first time since 2022 after a promising novice chase campaign that saw him win the Grade 2 Ten Up beating Mahler Mission. Hasn't convinced in open company this year but has been highly tried, pulling up in the Grade 1 Savills Chase and then unseating in the Irish National last time. His hurdles form was equally promising, finishing 4th in the Grade 1 Lawlors of Naas and 2nd in a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse. Officially rated 135 over hurdles which is 11lbs lower than his chase mark and he could be simply too well handicapped not to make the frame.
16:50 4:50 Punchestown
Three By Two
Daily Racing
25 EW
@34.00
Win
140
Can make a case for a few in here including Coko Beach, Birchdale and Fameaftertheglory but the one that looks hugely overpriced is Three By Two. Won over the cross country fences at this meeting last year before finishing 1.25L 3rd three days later. Wasn't at her best on heavy ground back in February but much better when sent off fav here last time, eventually finishing 4th. Untried and unexposed at marathon trips but stayed on well over 25f when winning here last year and being just an 8yo she could yet improve for it. Stable in good form having had 6 winners from last 26 runners mainly in the p2p circuit.
16:15 4:15 Punchestown
Blood Destiny
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@4.50
Lose
-50
Drops into handicap company having traded blows with Spillane's Tower at the top table, winning once at todays 16f trip. That rival won the Grade 1 novice chase on the first day and back at 16f I think Blood Destiny is more than capable of defying a mark of 150 having also comfortably dispatched the now-150 rated Heart Wood by 9L on his chase debut (albeit in receipt of 8lbs weight for age allowance).
Subtotal-10
01 May 2024
18:00 6:00 Punchestown
The Goffer
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@8.50
Lose
-50
The Goffer doesn't stay 24f as evident when fading in the last two Ultima Chases when looking to be travelling strongly. He's run with credit in staying handicap chases from marks in the high 140s, with multiple placed efforts, but today drops back to around 21f for the first time since his comfortable win in a handicap chase at the DRF in 2023 from a mark of 138. His mark has also dropped as a result and he runs today from 143 which has to see him in with a strong chance.
17:25 5:25 Punchestown
Hewick
Daily Racing
25 EW
@15.00
Win
45
Likely that most of the field are playing for second place given the imperious form GDC has shown over staying trips this season including the Gold Cup last time. Outside of him arguably the next best form is Hewick's win in the King George when rattling home to win the Grade 1 contest and he should get his preferred quick ground here today. The run over hurdles last time should have him primed for a big performance and after a fairly light campaign he should be fresher than most.
16:15 4:15 Punchestown
Lecky Watson
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.50
Lose
-50
I'm going to give Lecky Watson another chance after being poorly positioned the last twice when still posting decent form. Three starts back he finished 0.5L behind Supreme Novice winner Slade Steel and his trainer was at pains to point out that he might have gotten closer in the Grade 1 Lawlor of Naas with a cannier ride. Dancing City was impressive last time but I don't trust the Barlett form as nothing got into it from off the pace and he's turned out again quickly following his win at Aintree. I think Lecky Watson can yet prove to be a proper Grade 1 animal and this doesn't look a massively strong contest with half the field needing to bounce back from under par performances.
15:40 3:40 Punchestown
Mistergif
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@2.88
Lose
-50
Has been running in Grade 1 novice hurdles the last twice and the form of that looks strong. Favour And Fortune finished behind Mistergif in the Supreme and subsequently won the Scottish Champion Hurdle whilst the 1st, 2nd and 3rd have all filled the same places in Grade 1 company since. Simply put his form is the best on offer and he has potential to improve after just three starts for Willie Mullins, stepping up in trip for the first time.
Subtotal-105
30 April 2024
18:00 6:00 Punchestown
Montys Star
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@3.50
Lose
-50
I like Blood Destiny and would like to look positively on the formlines with Spillane's Tower but that's simply not in the same league as Monty's Star who has had just the three starts over fences but is proven at the trip. Beaten by National Hunt Chase winner Corbetts Cross on debut over fences before comfortably dispatching Three Card Brag on his second start. 2nd last time out to Fact To File is the strongest form on offer and he's been freshened up again since. Won't mind any rain that falls and looks the solid choice for a stable in good form (25% last 14 days).
17:25 5:25 Punchestown
Dinoblue
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@2.88
Lose
-50
Won a handicap on this card last year but taken her form to new levels since, winning a Grade 1 Chase at Leopardstown (beating GDM by 7.5L) before finishing behind El Fabiolo at the DRF. Finished a closing 2nd to Limerick Lace giving away 5lbs in the Mares Chase at Cheltenham but should appreciate the drop back in trip and can outclass this field in receipt of the mares allowance.
16:15 4:15 Punchestown
Nusret
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 21.00 used instead of 17.00 takenBOG
@21.00
Win
75
A mark of 139 looks lofty enough in such a competitive race but he's a much better horse going right handed and with just 5 hurdle starts going that way round could still have more improvement. Won on his first start here (and first over hurdles) and then finished 4th in a Grade 1 Juvenile on this card last year. That looks decent form with Lossiemouth winning, and the 2nd placed horse Zarak The Brave now rated 152 after performing well in open graded company since winning the Galway Hurdle last summer. Nusret finished about 6L behind him and will appreciate the quicker ground than he's had over obstacles so far this season. Off since December on account of the ground but I'm sure will be primed for this valuable handicap n
15:40 3:40 Punchestown
Ile Atlantique
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@19.00
Lose
-50
Willie Mullins has conceded in the build up to this that he might have read Ile Atlantique all wrong having been running over 20f + since winning his maiden. Has still gone well including a close 2nd in the Grade 1 Lawlors of Naas and likely to revert to more positive tactics to make the most of his jumping, he could spring a minor surprise in this field.
Subtotal-75
29 April 2024
14:45 2:45 Ayr
See My Baby Jive
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@9.00
Lose
-50
Rattled off a hat trick of C&D wins last summer, all with soft in the going description. Those wins came from marks of 46, 49 and 53. Following a few runs over 7f on the AW she's dropped to a mark of 53 (her last winning mark) and the stable are having a good time of things recently, with 2 winners, 2nd, 3rd and 5th (of 16) with their runners across the last couple of weeks. That gives some confidence that she can defy the break (off since November) and a track and in conditions she clearly relishes.
Subtotal-50
27 April 2024
16:10 4:10 Sandown
Impaire Et Passe
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.38
Win
69
Value for more than the bare result last time when not doing anything in front, veering across the track. His form is still clear of the rest, finishing close behind Stayers Hurdle champion Teahupoo and then behind Champion Hurdle winner State Man. Has gone ok when backed up quickly before and I'd expect a more patient ride today which can see him confirm superiority in this company.
1 member found this comment useful
15:35 3:35 Sandown
Nick Rockett
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@9.00
Lose
-50
Highly touted novice who was antepost favourite for some of the graded chase at Cheltenham but bypassed that engagement, being sent off fav for the Irish National last time. Finished 7th that day in heavy ground from a mark of 146 and although he's won on heavy I think the combination of trip and ground might have been too much of a test for a horse with just 4 chase starts. Arguably his best performance so far came on yielding ground when winning a Grade 2 novice hurdle at Fairyhouse by 15L and whilst Kittys Light will be a tough nut to crack I'd be shocked if a UK mark of 147 was this horses ceiling and I think he can make amends in more forgiving conditions.
1 member found this comment useful
14:25 2:25 Sandown
The Real Whacker
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.50
Lose
-50
This looks a weak enough contest, with doubts about many of these including my selection... Easy Game has some back form that reads very well and anything Mullins sends across needs respect but he's got to give weight away in Graded company and I think might have too much on his plate. The Real Whacker showed signs of a comeback on Trials day when finishing 2nd behind Capadanno in the Cotswold Chase and I fancy the drop back in trip will suit as I'm not sure he absolutely gets 24f+. He's unraced at Sandown but it should play to his strengths and if getting into a rhythm up front we've seen how hard it can be to peg back front runners here. Happy to forgive his Gold Cup effort when never finding his groove and hopefully can make amends here.
1 member found this comment useful
14:17 2:17 Navan
Givemethebeatboys
Daily Racing
50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 3.75 on 26/04 at 18:440.20 deduction for His Majesty@5.00 withdrawn at 10:25R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 2.75 x (1-0.20) = 3.20
@3.20
Win
110
Has to concede weight to all his rivals but with good reason having won a Group 3 last season before finishing 4th in the Coventry and then plying his trade at Group 1 level subsequently. Yard has a good record in this, winning 3 renewals since 2017, and he was good to go first time last season so could be primed for this en route to bigger things.
Subtotal79
26 April 2024
17:50 5:50 Downpatrick
Surf Club
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@3.00
Lose
-50
If transferring his form over fences (winner 4 days ago) back to the smaller obstacles he's a penalty kick here for the Champion Trainer as he bids to back Paul Townsend for Champion Jockey. Improved markedly for the step up in trip last time and despite being a maiden over hurdles he's only had 4 runs and all over what looks an inadequate trip. Competition doesn't look strong and he had an easy enough race LTO so can back up here with another win.
Subtotal-50
23 April 2024
16:10 4:10 Tipperary
Music Of Tara
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.75
Win
137
Rated 122 over hurdles, failing to see out the trip at 24f last time when brought down at the rear of the field. Former point winner who should appreciate and could improve for fences. In receipt of 10lbs from the 130-rated So Des Flos she looks weighted for a big effort on chase debut.
15:35 3:35 Tipperary
Now Is The Hour
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@2.88
Void
0
Fancied Now Is The Hour when pulled out at Down Royal a week ago and I think this Grade 2 hurdle winner showed enough on chase debut to suggest that he can put the rest of this field to the sword. Former p2p winner but also won a maiden at this trip and can make his class show.
Subtotal137
21 April 2024
16:00 4:00 Curragh
Jumbly
Daily Racing
50 WINNAP
@4.00
Lose
-50
Hasn't won since joining Joseph O'Brien but all runs have come at either Group 2 or Group 1 level (including American equivalents) and this represents a huge drop in class down to Listed level. Has to concede race fitness to some but has finished 2nd on last two seasonal reappearances both at a higher level and ran well on her only start here in the past.
1 member found this comment useful
Subtotal-50
20 April 2024
15:55 3:55 Curragh
White Birch
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.33 used instead of 4.00 takenBOG
@4.33
Win
166
I napped White Birch for this race when it was abandoned due to an untraceable track, and with most of the field standing their ground I don't see any reason to abandon him. His form lines are above those most of his rivals have posted, having finished 2nd in the Dante and 3rd in The Derby over 12f. His only win last season came in the Group 3 Ballysax at Leopardstown in heavy ground, and although that form isn't at the same level it shows he can go well fresh and will handle the poor conditions better than most.
1 member found this comment useful
15:35 3:35 Ayr
Mr Vango
Daily Racing
25 EW
@12.00
Lose
-50
Really competitive contest with lots of proven starters mixed with unexposed types that could improve for this marathon trip. Mr Vango ticks both boxes having had just three starts over fences, winning by 60L on his first start at a marathon trip before finishing a very respectable 3rd in the National Hunt Chase behind Graded horses in Corbetts Cross and Embassy Gardens. Likely to make a bold show from the front in favourable conditions, and I think a mark 135 still leaves him with lots in hand being so lightly raced.
15:15 3:15 Newbury
Navagio
Daily Racing
25 EW
@10.00
Lose
-50
Competitive handicap with the last two winners coming from the Lincoln to win here next time, and only 3 have won this without a prep run since 2011 so fitness is clearly a big positive. Navagio caught the eye in the Lincoln when short of room toward the finish, still running well to finish 3rd from todays mark of 96. That was on soft ground but he's equally adept on a quicker surface and his low draw looks ideal with loads of pace nearby. Can make amends on his 2nd UK start.
1 member found this comment useful
14:40 2:40 Newbury
Zoum Zoum
Daily Racing
50 WINNB
@3.25
Lose
-50
Boasts 3 wins from 3, first on the AW and then twice on heavy ground, latterly at Listed level in France. The form of his Newmarket win two starts back looks strong, with the 2nd and 3rd both winning next time, and his sire was a Group 1 winner on good ground in Australia so the quicker surface could yield further improvement at a trip he's proven over.
14:25 2:25 Ayr
Bialystok
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@8.50
Lose
-50
Happy to forgive him the run last time when down the field in the County Hurdle on poor ground and on that basis he looks well handicapped from a mark of 137. That's 1lb lower than when brought down in a competitive handicap hurdle at the DRF when travelling strongly and just 7lbs higher than when winning a handicap hurdle at the Punchestown Festival as a novice last year. His trainer has an eye on the UK trainers championship and any ride Paul Townsend takes in a handicap needs to be respected. This is calmer waters than the last twice and he's weighted to go well.
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