CalFergie

Stick to the good stuff (the flat). Use stats and systems alongside form to find selections. Some tips are based on market support so follow my Twitter handle for updates - @CalFergie

Estimated Prizes
this month

£5

Estimated Prize money
this month

CalFergie's Tips History

12 May 2024

19:00 7:00 Newcastle

Prince of Zenda

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@15.00

Win

I suspect that PRINCE OF ZENDA is being overlooked in this very open handicap and 16/1 (4 places) has to be taken. The son of Kingman is 2/3 this year, one of those wins coming over C&D back in January, and while 9lb higher in the handicap today he’s still early enough on in his career to know where his ceiling lies. I’m willing to forgive the 4yo for his blowout at Lingfield LTO because he was at the rear and never involved.

18:00 6:00 Newcastle

Aerospace

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-50

I really want to take on Fairbanks here given A Balding’s 17% SR (A/E 0.44) with G Strawbridge-bred favourites along with the owners’ 22% SR (A/E 0.49) with Irish-sired favs. I’ve come down on two, first being 2nd favourite AEROSPACE at 4/1. The Sea The Stars gelding comes out top + blue FlatStats rated and is in search of a hat trick of wins after success at Wolverhampton (9.5f) and Newcastle (10f) respectively. Connections are upping him in trip and class today but the nature of those victories suggests that he’ll improve further over a longer trip.

Artisan Dancer

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Win

The 2nd I like the look of in this field is ARTISAN DANCER at 14/1 (4 places). The 4yo is an incredibly consistent sort, finishing on the premise more often than not, and has notched up 5W 5P from 20 starts on the AW. He’s dropping back to 12.5f off an unchanged handicap mark after just failing to cling on for 2nd over 14f at Southwell LTO and should be able to push my main selection, Aerospace, all the way.

11 May 2024

15:30 3:30 Nottingham

Eeh Bah Gum

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

M Appleby is the master of “yard switching” (21% SR, A/E 1.49) and his 34% SR (A/E 1.5) over 5f at Nottingham makes EEH BAH GUM easy to back here at 12/1 each way. The son of Dandy Man has come in a couple of points this morning so the market could potentially be indicating he’s fancied today and F Larson’s 24% SR (A/E 2.18) at the course when riding for Appleby adds further confidence of a good run.

15:00 3:00 Lingfield

Imperial Sovereign

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@15.00

Lose

-50

I really think 14/1 each way for IMPERIAL SOVEREIGN in the Derby trial at Lingfield this afternoon is decent value. The Frankel colt made a winning debut at Newcastle back in December and was just denied on his next start at Kempton, missing the break. I suspect the switch to turf will bring out further improvement and K Burke’s 40% SR (A/E 2.19) with the owner suggests that their charge is a big enough price.

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14:40 2:40 Ascot

Jumby

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@17.00

Lose

-50

I’m going to take a flyer on JUMBY at 16/1 (6 places) to bounce back to form now returning to handicaps. The son of New Bay won a Group 3 at Haydock in June last year before backing that up with a solid 2l defeat at HQ NTO. He failed to build on that after a small break but did show flashes of improvement on seasonal appearance at Riyadh in February and I hope a run back at the venue of his debut success will spark him back to life. Plenty of positive stats boost claims further; most notably E Johnson Houghton’s 22% (A/E 1.56) for the owner, her 28% SR (A/E 1.6) with NB progeny and NB’s 22% SR (A/E 1.31) over 7f.

1 member found this comment useful

10 May 2024

20:18 8:18 Nottingham

Munificent

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

The draw of stall 2 for MUNIFICENT makes him really easy to back at 10/1 with 4 places on offer. Showalong is the clear favourite, however J Garritty’s 9% SR (A/E 0.49) on fancied 6yo’s makes him hard to back, meanwhile Loco Lobo comes out poorly FlatStats rated with an absolute deluge of negatives for sire Captain Gerrard and trainer L Williamson. A case can be made for Yazaman, who’s next door to my pick, but the Pearl Secret gelding has been running well in defeat all winter and been given 6 weeks off. He’s relatively unexposed on the turf but has won at Yarmouth off a 2lb lower mark and a couple of positive stats for PS brings a couple of glaring positives; a 20% SR (A/E 1.68) over 5f and 17% SR (A/E 1.75) in Spring.

16:15 4:15 Chester

Law Of The Sea

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.50

Lose

-50

9/2 for LAW OF THE SEA looks solid value to me against Prince Alex. The latter has to overcome D Ffrench Davis’s 12% SR (A/E 0.47) with fancied runners when the yard have just 2 runners that day and D Egan’s 14% SR (A/E 0.4) on favourites at tight courses. I Williams throws plenty of darts at this race and won it last year with Zinc White; he’s got a battalion in here again today but LOTS is the most fancied. The son of Golden Horn failed to beat a rival home on his last two starts in 2023 and is clearly one to throw a stinker in occasionally, but a 1.75l defeat in the Chester Cup on yard debut last year suggests that a return to this venue off a 2lb lower mark could rejuvenate him. J Crowley’s 32% SR (A/E 1.38) on fancied runners from West Midlands-based trainers adds further confidence.

15:05 3:05 Chester

Israr

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-50

You can get 11/4 for ISRAR in the Huxley at Chester with Betway Boost and that seems fantastic value to me. Passenger is coming in for support but Ulysses brings a deluge of negatives to temper enthusiasm; most notably a 14% SR (A/E 0.49) with fancied runners in May and 11% SR (A/E 0.39) with fancied runners carrying 9-1 to 9-3. Israr meanwhile ran a solid race in the Gordon Richards (Gr3) at Sandown last month (1l 3rd of 7), coming on the back of a couple of months off. You’d expect him to strip even fitter here and should be able to see out his effort better on the faster surface. The 5yo comes out top + blue FlatStats rated with plenty of positive stats to boot; most notable being J Crowley’s 46% SR (A/E 1.5) on favourites wearing blinkers, Shadwell’s (breeder) 44% SR (A/E 1.28) with favs returning off 8-14 days away and the owners’ 40% SR (A/E 1.26) with fancied runners on left handed courses.

14:35 2:35 Chester

Botanical

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@3.75

Void

My strongest fancy of the day comes in the form of BOTANICAL at 11/4. City Streak has come in for support, and could potentially remove the favourite from market leadership, however O Murphy has a terrible record at Chester (8% SR, A/E 0.34 when fancied), A Balding underperforms over C&D (13% SR, A/E 0.45 when fancied) and Cityscape’s 10% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied runners in C1-3 races suggests that his son offers little value. Botanical meanwhile is an unexposed 4yo with 2 wins and 2 places to his name already from 5 starts last season. He finished his 3yo campaign with a C3 success at Hamilton on soft ground, laughing at the handicapper as he passed the post 6l ahead of the 2nd, and a 10lb rise shouldn’t be enough to stop the gelding on reappearance. His owner’s 65% SR (A/E 1.48) with Lope De Vega favourites adds further confidence.

14:05 2:05 Chester

Ephesus

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@2.87

Lose

-50

Mr Hampstead is loveless in the market for this maiden while EPHESUS is taking all of the money, so 9/5 is backable for the latter. The Galileo colt ran well enough (2.75l) in behind his odds-on stable companion, London City, on debut at Dundalk last month, finishing his race off well. The step up in trip should therefore suit him and it’s no secret as to how well A O’Brien does at Chester (65% SR, A/E 1.53 when fancied) so they’ve clearly flown the 3yo here for a reason.

09 May 2024

15:40 3:40 Chester

Point Lonsdale

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@2.63

Win

Arrest and Deauville Legend are clearly worthy adversaries here but A O'Brien's 71% SR (A/E 1.63) with favourites in stakes races at Chester makes POINT LONSDALE worthy of a play. The son of Australia started his 4yo campaign with back to back victories at the Curragh and Chester, and while he failed to build on those he did finish within a few lengths of the winner in the Champion Stakes and International Trophy. I'm hoping that the drop to Gr3 level at the scene of his last success will rejuvenate the gelding.

08 May 2024

16:45 4:45 Chester

On A Session

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@8.00

Lose

-50

Divine Libra is easy enough to oppose here given W Buick’s poor record around Chester (14% SR, A/E 0.46 when fancied) and Dark Angel’s 7% SR (A/E 0.45) over C&D. However next up ON A SESSION makes plenty of appeal at 7/1 with 4 places on offer; the son of Noble Mission looked to bounce back to form in a similar event at Musselburgh last month, finishing 2l 3rd of 11 after meeting trouble in-running. He’s running off an unchanged mark here which should set him up nicely at a course where he’s ran well in the past off much higher marks. C Rodriguez is a top booking given his 37% SR (A/E 1.73) on fancied runners aged 8+ and 26% SR (A/E 1.38) on fancied runners in C1-3 races, meanwhile NM’s 43% SR (A/E 1.68) with fancied runners on good ground adds further confidence.

05 May 2024

17:25 5:25 Newmarket

Black Run

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Win

350

Now dropping into handicap company BLACK RUN makes plenty of appeal at 7/1. The son of Nathaniel made a fair debut at Deauville (2.5l 3rd of 10) before taking a step forward a couple of months later in a novice event at Goodwood (1/2l). Connections then put him away for the winter and he made an underwhelming return at Longchamp last month. The 3yo was upped to Group 3 level that day, so chances are it came too soon for the colt and this is calmer waters. T Marquand is a positive jockey booking given his 29% SR (A/E 1.63) on Nathaniel progeny.

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16:50 4:50 Newmarket

Symbol Of Honour

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@3.00

Lose

-50

There’s barely anything between the top two in the market but Harry Angel’s 11% SR (A/E 0.42) with fancied runners in the spring makes The Actor hard to back, meanwhile Havana Grey’s superb 53% SR (A/E 2.25) with fancied debutants in spring suggests that the value lies with SYMBOL OF HONOUR at 2/1. The rest of the field come out poor on FlatStats ratings with some carrying glaring negatives also, so it seems wise to follow the market on SOH.

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

New London

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.00

Lose

-50

The top + blue FlatStats rated jolly looks worth a go at 7/2 now dropping back into handicap company. New London has gone off favourite or 2nd favourite on every one of his 11 starts and while has only got his head in front on four occasions he’s finished close in behind more often than not. Two of those wins came here at HQ over 10f and while the son of Dubawi has only raced over this trip twice his run in the St Leger last season suggests he’s got the stamina. W Buick’s 45% SR (A/E 1.34) on 5yo favourites adds further confidence. 4/1 taken.

1 member found this comment useful

14:05 2:05 Hamilton

Two Brothers

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.00

Lose

-50

Plenty of negative stats for owner Dr J Walker make Capital Theory far too short in the betting here. Most notable is his 5% SR (A/E 0.36) with geldings and 10% SR (A/E 0.36) with fancied runners from British sires so I think it wise to look at next up TWO BROTHERS at 3/1. The top weight put a disappointing reappearance run behind him at Thirsk LTO, comfortable winning by 2.25l on soft ground. He went off an SP of 20/1 so wasn’t fancied at all and I can only see the support here as a positive. B Garritty keeps the mount and his 30% SR (A/E 1.28) on fancied runners keeping to the same class adds to their claim.

1 member found this comment useful

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Friendly Soul

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 11.00 used instead of 9.00 takenBOG

@11.00

Win

300

I really like the angle of Kingman 3yo’s on their first start of the season after having just one run as a 2yo (37% SR, A/E 1.53) and FRIENDLY SOUL makes no exception here at 8/1. The filly won over a mile at Kempton on debut in December, being tentatively handled all the way. She’s bred for better than that so the switch to turf is likely to bring out improvement and the yard holds a superb record in this race (6 wins from the last 10).

04 May 2024

16:10 4:10 Newmarket

Maxi King

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.00

Win

300

My strongest fancy of the day comes in the form of MAXI KING at 6/1. I’m not convinced that Real Dream a 100+ rated horse so I think he’s got it all to do on reappearance today, meanwhile Relentless Voyager has a deluge of negative stats to overcome; most notably Ulysses’s 13% SR (A/E 0.48) with fancied runners in C1-3 races. Knightswood is more difficult to rule out but is 0/4 in C2 company and the quick turnaround is a huge question mark. MK returned to the scene with a bang at Ripon LTO; demolishing the field by 5l on heavy ground over 10f. That came off a near-13 month absence after shedding his maiden at Doncaster in similarly comfortable fashion. He’s clearly open to further improvement and is worth a chance at this level. The Ffrench Davis yard have began the season in fine form with a 22% SR (A/E 1.67) and Ringfort Stud being a number of positive stats to boost claims further; most notably a 38% SR (A/E 1.41) with fancied LTO winners and 30% SR (A/E 1.35) with fancied handicappers.

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15:35 3:35 Newmarket

Alyanaabi

Daily Racing

25 EW

@23.00

Lose

-50

City Of Troy could today confirm that he’s the next coming, and I think he will, but his price is so short that the race is saturated with each way value. The one I like the look of most is top + blue FlatStats rated ALYANAABI at 22/1. The son of Too Darn Hot won on debut at Salisbury before just failing to grab a place behind Rosallion in the Eddery Stakes at Ascot. He was then given a couple of months off and returned with a bang in the Tattersalls Stakes (Gr 3) here at HQ; winning by a short head after having plenty of traffic problems. Connections then rolled the dice in the Dewhurst where he finished runner-up to COT, so he’s clearly up to this level and I suspect that there’s plenty more to come from this colt. TDH’s solid 24% SR (A/E 1.66) with runners in Group races, O Burrows’ a 25% SR (A/E 1.5) also in Gr races and Shadwell’s (breeder) 24% SR (A/E 1.37) over a mile at Newmarket all provide confidence.

1 member found this comment useful

15:15 3:15 Thirsk

Maximum Impact

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@6.50

Lose

-50

There’s a couple I fancy at Thirsk this afternoon, my strongest play being MAXIMUM IMPACT at 11/2. Arecibo is easy to oppose given D Carroll’s 12% SR (A/E 0.38) with favourites who ran 8 to 14 days ago and the yard having started the season poorly (3% SR, A/E 0.33). You could look at the bigger prices for some each way value but I think MI will take a big step forward off a 6l defeat on reappearance + yard debut at Windsor last month. The Havana Grey colt could not have won easier on debut at Leicester (12l, eased down), albeit coming from a flag start, but that promise was confirmed with a comfortable C2 conditions success at Ascot (2.25l) on his next start. He bombed out when upped to listed level NTO and that clearly dented his confidence with subsequent no-shows since. He was then switched to G Scott from A Haynes and the hood was applied LTO which didn’t look to have worked (removed here). C Rodriguez brings a superb 27% SR (A/E 1.4) on fancied runners in C1-3 races and HG’s even better 50% SR (A/E 1.64) with fancied runners in May adds plenty of confidence.

14:40 2:40 Thirsk

Redarna

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 17.00 used instead of 15.00 takenBOG

@17.00

Win

This is about as trappy a handicap as they come with everything being exposed but I’m (probably foolishly) going to wade in on old friend REDARNA at 14/1 (4 places). The Aqlaam gelding won this race in 2022 off a 3lb higher mark and while has only won once since, has put in plenty of stern efforts. He made his reappearance at Musselburgh last month, finishing 4l 5th of 11 and running on towards the finish, so I’m happy to see him returning to the mile. An absolute deluge of positive stats boost claims for the veteran; most notable being his owner’s 27% SR (A/E 2.43) with geldings and trainer D Sayer’s 26% SR (A/E 2.29) with Aqlaam progeny.

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14:20 2:20 Newmarket

Liberty Lane

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@13.00

Win

360

Whether he acts as well on quicker ground as he does on ground with some cut in it is yet to be seen but 12/1 (5 places) is too big to resist for LIBERTY LANE. Torito is all the rage but the Gosden yard have started the season poorly (15% SR, A/E 0.6) and G Strawbridge’s (breeder) 10% SR (A/E 0.47) with runners returning off 57+ days off makes his charge easy to oppose. Theoryofeverything comes out poorly FlatStats rated, meanwhile C Johnston’s terrible 4% SR (A/E 0.33) over 9f makes Dutch Decoy hard to back. It seems wise to look at the bigger prices and LL makes the most appeal to me. The son of Teofilo won a mile handicap at the St Leger meeting last year before blowing out over today’s C&D on his next start. The same happened again on reappearance at the Lincoln meeting in March but he’s still fairly low mileage so is too soon to write him off. K Burke’s 39% SR (A/E 2.12) with this breeder adds confidence.

1 member found this comment useful

13:45 1:45 Newmarket

Rohaan

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@15.00

Win

14/1 for ROHAAN with 5 places on offer looks very generous to me. You’re never really sure which version of the gelding is going to turn up on raceday but his price negates this IMO and he’s now just 1lb above his last winning mark. He ran well on his two starts on the AW in March, the latest of which coming over 7f at Kempton which just looked to stretch the 6yo, so a return to sprinting on the turf will suit now the cobwebs are blown off. Mayson’s 18% SR (A/E 1.31) with runners dropping in trip suggests his son could prove a touch of value.

1 member found this comment useful

13:40 1:40 Thirsk

Jm Jhingree

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

The Quinn yard were fairly sporadic with their May 2yo sprinters up until 2018 where they've had 2 winners every season since and I think it would be wise to follow them again this season. JM JHINGREE is the first of theirs to make an appearance and 11/1 has been taken each way in what doesn't look an overly competitive maiden.

03 May 2024

16:45 4:45 Newmarket

Olympic Candle

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@5.00

Lose

-50

Volterra is easy to oppose here given N Callan’s 6% SR (A/E 0.17) with favourites over a mile and next up OLYMPIC CANDLE looks a solid proposition against him at 4/1 He’s been backed from 11/2 earlier this morning so is clearly fancied, and I trust the Profitable colt to progress further as a 3yo given he took steps forward on every start last season. He finished 3.75l 3rd of 13 on debut at Newbury before dominating at Ascot in a C3 maiden and backing that up with a 3/4l success at Kempton when dropped in trip and upped in class. He was disappointing on reappearance at Meydan in February but you can forgive him given it was his first trip abroad and O Murhpy’s superb 22% SR (A/E 1.37) over the mile at Newmarket adds plenty of confidence.

16:10 4:10 Newmarket

Naqeeb

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@6.50

Lose

-50

I can’t be having Time Lock here given R Moore’s 9% SR (A/E 0.5) on mares and H Charlton’s 7% SR (A/E 0.18) with favourites who were foaled in February. It’s easier to make a case for Castle Way, however Highclere Stud and Floors Farm’s 13% SR (A/E 0.4) with fancied runners carrying 9-4+ adds little confidence so I think a chance can be taken on top + blue FlatStats rated NAQEEB at 11/2. The son of Nathaniel is closely related to superstars Baaeed + Hukum and did absolutely nothing wrong during his 3yo campaign; accumulating in 2 successes and 3 places from 6 starts. He’s likely to progress further this season and a couple of positive stats add further confidence; Shadwell’s (breeder) 24% SR (A/E 1.29) in Group races along with Nathaniel’s 22% SER (A/E 1.42) in Gr races.

1 member found this comment useful

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Dark Thirty

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.50

Lose

-50

I suspect that DARK THIRTY has more to offer after his 3/4l success on reappearance here at HQ last month. That came over 6f but was staying on well so the step back up to 7f looks sure to suit and a 3lb rise in the handicap shouldn’t hinder him too much. His owners bring a 15% SR (A/E 1.64) with sprinters and 17% SR (A/E 1.72) with runners when trained by R Hannon. 13/2 seems more than fair.

1 member found this comment useful

01 May 2024

14:15 2:15 Ascot

Coltrane

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 4.50 used instead of 3.25 takenBOG

@4.50

Win

175

I really fancy the chances of COLTRANE at 9/4 in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot this afternoon. Sweet William is clearly open to further progression on the back of his hugely successful 4yo campaign, however R Havlin’s 15% SR (A/E 0.45) with favourites at Ascot is enough to make me want to take the jolly on. Coltrane is a C&D winner, coming in this race a year ago under similar conditions. Connections are reaching for FT cheek pieces after a disappointing run at Meydan LTO but he should be able to return to form with the cobwebs blown away. His owner’s 41% SR (A/E 1.95) with Mastercraftsman progeny adds further confidence.

28 April 2024

16:15 4:15 Southwell

Media Shooter

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@6.50

Lose

-50

Blue Day is easy to oppose here given Blue Point’s 19% SR (A/E 0.45) with favourites over 6f and H Charlton’s 13% SR (A/E 0.48) with fancied runners in C1-3 races. A case can be made for top FlatStats rated Piz Nair who was successful at Lingfield LTO, however he’s now being stepped up in class off a 3lb higher mark and his owner’s 13% SR (A/E 0.44) with sprinters adds little confidence. 2nd top + blue FS rated MEDIA SHOOTER makes plenty of appeal though at 5/1; the Advertise gelding has already won twice (both coming at Kempton) and placed once as a 3yo. He was stepped up to C2 company LTO at Newcastle and was in no way disgraced, finishing 2.25l 4th of 11, so a drop back into a C3 along with a 1lb drop in the handicap can swing things in his favour.

15:40 3:40 Southwell

Diamond Bay

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@11.00

Lose

-50

Potentially my only bet of the day comes in the form of DIAMOND BAY each way at 10/1 in the marathon feature at Southwell. The New Bay gelding comes out 2nd best but still blue FlatStats rated, just behind favourite Prydwen who I think is worth taking on given G Scott’s 15% SR (A/E 0.38) with favourites when the jockey has 4 rides at the meeting. DB looked rejuvenated with the FT application of cheekpieces at Lingfield LTO; he finished 1.25l 2nd behind joint-fav Aqwaam who’s proven himself to be a very consistent operator. He has got a bit to prove now back up to C2 company where he’s fallen short on 8 occasions, but a few positive stats make him a backable price; S Levey’s 32% SR (A/E 1.34) with LTO runner-ups, his 26% SR (A/E 1.4) at Southwell and NB’s huge 55% SR (A/E 20.8) with LTO runner-ups also.

27 April 2024

17:15 5:15 Ripon

Titian

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.50

Lose

-50

My only play of the day comes in the form of TITIAN at 4/1. Helter Skelter can be opposed given Elzaam’s 9% SR (A/E 0.43) with fancied milers and R Menzies’s 11% SR (A/E 0.31) with favourites wearing no headgear. Dabirsim’s 6% SR (A/E 0.5) with runners returning off 15 to 28 days absences provides cause for concern with Hiromichi who performs better off shorter breaks, meanwhile Spioradalta comes out poorly FlatStats rated alongside M Walford’s 4% SR (A/E 0.44) with milers. I can’t make a case for the bigger prices but I expect the J Camacho-trained to come forward from his poor run in the Spring Mile. The 6yo’s been dropped a couple of pounds for that effort and is also coming down in class which will make life easier. The yard’s 26% SR (A/E 1.61) with Iffraaj progeny adds further confidence.

26 April 2024

15:35 3:35 Sandown

War Rooms

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.00

Lose

-50

Arabian Crown is by far the most likely winner here but I think a solid each way play comes in the form of WAR ROOMS at 6/1. The Churchill colt made an emphatic winning debut at Doncaster last year on soft ground before being upped into listed company and flattering to deceive. He was staying on that day so I suspect the step up to 10f on slightly quicker ground will play to his strengths and it’s no secret as to how well the O Burrows team do in Group races (36% SR, A/E 1.54 when fancied).

14:33 2:33 Doncaster

Surrey Shadow

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@21.00

Win

Plenty of positive stats make SURREY SHADOW easy to back each way at 20/1 in the novice event at Doncaster this afternoon. There looks to be a few smart ones in here, including the lofty FlatStats rated Balmacara and Upscale, however it’s best to be drawn low under these conditions over 7f at Doncaster, and while the former is coming from stall 1 he’s got to overcome his owner’s 13% SR (A/E 0.47) with fancied runners from British sires. Nazionale comes out poorly FS rated, so is easy to oppose, meanwhile Midnight’s Dream will do well to overcome the R Varian form slump (7% SR, A/E 0.34 over the past month) on seasonal appearance. The Gosden’s haven’t started the season well either (1/17, A/E 0.26) so I’d expect Stanage to need the run, and T Whelan will likely make So Quiet’s life difficult given his poor record on soft (3% SR, A/E 0.38). N Callan is a jockey you want on debutants (14% SR A/E 1.82) and T Clover does phenomenally well also with FTO’s (20% SR, A/E 2.15) Callan’s 10% SR (A/E 1.97) with outsiders who are the trainer’s only runner at the meeting adds further confidence.

13:50 1:50 Sandown

Royal Supremacy

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@SP

Lose

-50

A deluge of negative favourite stats for Churchill, including a 13% SR (A/E 0.35) with runners up in class and 13% SR (A/E 0.38) in C1-3 races, makes Hand Of God easy to oppose here. Next up ROYAL SUPREMACY makes the most appeal against at 7/2; the son of Make Believe was 2/3 as a 2yo, including a debut win here at Sandown. He failed to back that up at Newbury NTO when upped to C2 novice company but put that behind him when last seen winning over a mile at Kempton in October.

25 April 2024

15:55 3:55 Beverley

Classy Boy

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@4.50

Win

175

7/2 for CLASSY BOY looks fair value to me against a fav who’s coming up a couple of classes after a 1l success LTO. The son of Calyx didn’t win as a 2yo but put in solid efforts on each outing accumulating in four places, including a 1/2l defeat in a C2 nursery on soft ground at York on his penultimate start. That performance suggests the ground won’t be a problem and the K Burke yard have started the season in flying form (24% SR, A/E 1.46) so their charge should be firing on all cylinders on reappearance. Their 33% SR (A/E 1.33) with fancied runners on Thursdays adds further confidence.

20 April 2024

16:20 4:20 Thirsk

Winged Messenger

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Win

My final play of the day comes in the form of WINGED MESSENGER each way at 12/1 in the 5f handicap at Thirsk. Kendall Roy a fair enough jolly given his 4l victory on UK debut 5 days ago, however the quick turn around isn’t sure to suit so at odds-on he’s easy to oppose. WM was a victor when last seen at Hamilton; he was wasn’t a convincing 11/10 winner that day but I expect him to have strengthened up over the winter and the J Camacho yard tend to have them ready off a break. S Osbourne is a positive jockey booking given her historic 22% SR (A/E 1.62) in April.

15:15 3:15 Newbury

Godwinson

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@9.00

Win

I’m going to take a flyer on the lightly raced handicap debutant in GODWINSON at 8/1 with 5 places on offer. The Saxon Warrior 4yo showed plenty of promise on his debut season, finishing 2.75l 3rd on debut at Nottingham before a demolition job at Hamilton (4.75l) and hitting traffic problems when last seen at Kempton. The winner of that race is now rated in the 100’s and the 2nd beat Mr Professor 6l on his last start, who won the Lincoln in March, so I suspect an opening mark of 88 will prove very lenient. The break is a question mark but Haggas tends to have them ready in Spring and the owners’ 32% (1.45) with fancied runners keeping to the same trip adds further confidence. Notable mention to Navagio who’s come in for support, and rightly so given his run in the Lincoln.

13:30 1:30 Newbury

Al Qareem

Daily Racing

50 WINNB

@7.00

Lose

-50

Juddmonte’s 17% SR (A/E 0.38) with favourites at Newbury and the Gosden’s 13% SR (A/E 0.5) over the past month makes me want to take on Arrest here. A case can absolutely be made for Hamish given his 60% SR career, however father time must catch up with the 8yo soon and I prefer the younger legs of AL QAREEM at 6/1. The Awtaad gelding finished 1.75l 2nd behind Hamish in the St Simon Stakes at HQ when last seen in November on heavy ground. I think the quicker conditions today will reduce that distance and Awtaad’s 36% SR (A/E 1.68) with fancied 5yo’s adds further confidence.

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19 April 2024

14:12 2:12 Newbury

Gisburn

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@12.00

Lose

-50

I think GISBURN is worth a crack at 11/1 here with 5 places on offer. The Ribchester gelding is 2/4 over 6f at Newbury and has shown he appreciates ground some give in it with 2 wins and another couple of solid runs on soft. He won at Goodwood back in October off a break so the absence doesn’t concern me and the booking of S Levey is a positive given he’s started the year off to a flyer (3/15, A/E 1.95). Two of those wins have come for R Hannon and when riding over C&D for the yard holds a superb 21% SR (A/E 1.41).

18 April 2024

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Spycatcher

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 8.50 used instead of 8.00 takenBOG

@8.50

Win

I can’t get away from SPYCATCHER in the Abernant Stakes at 7/1 with 4 places on offer. The Vadamos gelding has a superb record when fresh (3 wins and a head 3rd from four) and comfortably won a C3 conditions contest over C&D back in October 2021 so should handle the track. He was last seen finishing 2.25l 3rd of 15 in the Champion Sprint at Ascot, topping off what was a fantastic season with a Gr3 win and short-headed Gr2 defeat at Deaville. The 6yo is likely to give his running again here with C Lee booked, who holds a solid 17% SR (A/E 1.3) over 6f at HQ, and K Burke’s 32% SR (A/E 1.29) with fancied runners on Thursdays adding further confidence.

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17 April 2024

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Raatea

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@15.00

Lose

-50

I think RAATEA is worth a chance in the opener at HQ at 12/1 with 5 places on offer. The Invincible Spirit gelding has proven to be a fairly useful operator in handicaps at this level and finished 1/2l 3rd of 12 off a 1lb lower mark a couple of years ago. He’s shown he goes well fresh, so the 215-day break doesn't concern me, plus R Ryan has finished 1.75l 3rd of 12 and 1/2l 2nd of 12 when riding the 7yo previously so looks to have a strong partnership. A handful of positive stats for J Camacho boost claims further; most notably her 36% SR (A/E 1.53) with fancied runners at Midlands courses and 35% SR (A/E 1.57) with fancied runners wearing the hood.

16 April 2024

14:55 2:55 Newmarket

Hafeet Alain

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@21.00

Win

600

20/1 for HAFEET ALAIN with 5 places on offer is too hard to resist. The Elzaam gelding is a C&D winner in June last year before backing that up with a neck 2nd over the same C&D a month later. He was upped a couple of classes that day (C2) so is clearly able to operate at this level and this was confirmed with a success in the Autumn Mile at Doncaster in October. He’s won and placed off long absences before so the break doesn’t concern me and S Osbourne is a positive jockey booking given her historic 22% SR (A/E 1.58) in April, her 21% SR (A/E 1.53) with sole mounts that day and 21% SR (A/E 1.8) when riding for E Walker at HQ.

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13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Makanah

Daily Racing

25 EWNB

@15.00

Win

MAKANAH’S 2/5 record (A/E 2.81) on his first run of the year makes him backable at 14/1 with 4 places. The 9yo has only won once from this handicap mark or higher, but has placed on a handful of occasions and is 3W 1P from 6 goes at C3 level so is capable of going well today. Mayson’s 18% SR (A/E 1.32) with runners dropping down in trip adds further confidence.

15 April 2024

15:42 3:42 Redcar

Look Back Smiling

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@7.50

Void

I fancy the chances of LOOK BACK SMILING at 13/2 for the feature at Redcar this afternoon. Noble Order is a fair fav given his exploits on the AW and soft ground debut at HQ back in October 2021, however he’s clearly one who’s hard to keep sound with a number of absences already in his short career and L Morris’s 11% SR (A/E 0.46) on fancied runners in April adds little confidence. Spirit Genie has to overcome O Orr’s 7% SR (A/E 0.28) on fancied runners in April along with his 9% SR (A/E 0.41) on fancied runners in 4yo+ races, however LBS will handle conditions and made a winning return at in the Spring Mile at Doncaster last month. The son of Fast Company is dropping in class here and 5lb claimer B Wilkie keeps the mount. FC’s 16% SR (A/E 1.27) on soft and trainer G Tutty’s superb 46% SR (A/E 1.58) with fancied runners on galloping courses adds further confidence.

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