JackpotRod

I'll get you an odds on shots beaten, but also give you some long odds winners with hopefully some insightful reasoning to help you to decide whether to follow me in or not. Back all my own selections with my own cash.

Estimated Prizes
this month

£30

Estimated Prize money
this month

JackpotRod's Tips History

13 May 2024

18:35 6:35 Windsor

Lady Dreamer

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Up in class, but she looks worth a try here on this ground off the back of a pipe opener. She went well enough first time up last year albeit over 7f and not quite getting home. Tried in first time cheekpieces this time, she ducked left from a wide draw, got dropped in miles back, but stayed on well to finish 5th when seemingly nowhere in the straight. I think that run can be upgraded significantly, and she could strike off a low weight if breaking better here. The visor and tongue tie replace the cheekpieces here, and she won here in a first time visor last year over CD off 1lb higher than this. Trainer has a sound record here (11 from last 67, 33 placed), and the horse is 21 on Gf so back on this surface has to be a plus.

16:47 4:47 Catterick

Hurstwood

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

Hurstwood looked interesting to me off a prep run in ground that wouldn't have suited. This could be run way too quickly, and setting up for one to close from off the pace. This horse gets a light weight on suitable going, and did finish a close 5th in this race 2nd time up for the season last year. He's got a decent draw next to a pace angle which could drag him into a better forward position, and hopefully his light weight can see him stay on best. He's towards the top of the speed ratings of these, suggesting he does have the pace to go with them if they go too hard, which looks likely. He did place off this mark on his last start last season, and also placed off higher marks than this throughout the year, with his best efforts by far being on good or better.

12 May 2024

15:30 3:30 Longchamp

Metropolitan

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Win

750

Could be playing for places here with Henry Longfellow involved, but it looked open otherwise, and I thought a chance on Metropolitan was worthwhile. A closing 5th when slowly away behind 6/1 shot for this in Ramadan, he was doing good work late in what turned into an out and out dash for the line. He was the most inconvenienced having to circle the field from an outside draw and didn’t get beaten far. 5 of the last 7 winners have come out of that race and won this, with 3 of those not winning it. Stall 1 may call for different tactics, though his damsire did make all from stall 1 over an additional furlong here, so with some relatively assured stamina in his pedigree perhaps a switch of tactics could see a surprise, with his sire also getting further.

14:50 2:50 Longchamp

Tulipa Chope

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

Tulipa Chope I thought was of small interest at a fair price here from a decent stall 4. She got locked in with nowhere to go over course and distance when last seen, and multiple switches later she ran on well considering in the Grotte, and especially as she wasn’t particularly reached for. Drawn ok in 4 here, with conqueror Minoushka out in 13, I think she could show up better with a bit more luck in running. Chic Colombine holds her on form, but is stuck out in 14 which is a major negative, and the same can be said for Romantic Style. With a large field and some principles drawn poorly, I suspect they could go harder than is desirable, and she’s got stamina to burn in her pedigree so hopefully will be doing some good work later she can hold position in stall 4.

11 May 2024

16:10 4:10 Lingfield

Sonmarg

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

A return to better ground could prove fruitful for Sonmarg from this mark. His two AW races have worked out well this season, seeing multiple horses come out and frank the form, for all it looks like he needs to improve for them on the face of his finishing positions. A look back to his 2yo turf efforts finds him beating a now 82 rated horse on good, before then following home two now 88 rated horses under a penalty on good, with the horse in 4th coming out and winning subsequently. Returning to a more conventional track (was 11th of 11 at Newmarket in last turf start) could prove fruitful, and a mark of 73 under rated him in the right conditions based on all this. A return to front running tactics could prove fruitful in a race with no pace, and up in class he comes here towards the bottom of the weights as well.

15:35 3:35 Lingfield

Born To Rock

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@41.00

Lose

-50

Born To Rock interested me at the prices here, going well in the Nell Gwyn for her seasonal reappearance and first run over further than the minimum trip. She'll need to step on for that, but it wasn't without promise given she didn't appear particularly comfortable hitting the dip at Newmarket, but stuck to the task well enough to my eye. The 1-2 have come out and run sound races in the 1000gns, albeit well beaten enough, but this race isn't of that level overall bar Remarquee who is the standout on ratings off 110. She'll have to run to her best though to give 12lbs to the 3yo's in my view, and it looks massively open bar that. Drying ground looks in her favour, as does an overall lack of pace. She's drawn in the stall (1) that has seen 3 of the last 4 winners break from it (albeit last year on the AW track, not the straight flat 7), and with just 4lbs to find with her fellow 3yo who is 5/2, I do not particularly see why she is sat at such a big price here.

1 member found this comment useful

14:40 2:40 Ascot

Arabian Storm

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

Whilst it's hard to make all here, I do wonder whether Arabian Storm may take some catching on the higher side as the pace angle. A good ground close 3rd behind Shoulvebeenaring around this time last year is standout form in the context of a mark of 93 given that horse went on to now be rated 112. He must have had his problems given he didn't race beyond that run in May last year, and whilst he's got form to turn round with Mostabshir from last time he must be entitled to improve having been off the track for nearly a year. Overall they look like they won't go that hard, so with the right fractions from an in form Murphy for an in form stable, he looks a nice enough price to at least get involved.

1 member found this comment useful

14:05 2:05 Ascot

Topanga

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

A handicap debut for Topanga off a low weight and pitched in against some elders here which is the biggest worry, but she had to be of interest off this opening mark of 88 getting 13lbs from the older horses (along with a few others in here). She was 5th behind 1000gns winner Elmalka on seasonal debut, and whilst well beaten it’s hardly bad form. Short of room at a key stage when going ok in that steadily run affair, she wasn’t able to go with the ones in front of her. Nudged up in trip here, perhaps if she has a want for further that was why. She’s certainly bred to appreciate further, being out of a horse who’s Mother won over CD in the Sandringham off a mark of 105, and who also won over further, and also on decent ground. The yard couldn’t be in better form

1 member found this comment useful

10 May 2024

15:40 3:40 Chester

Too Friendly

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Lose

-50

Too Frienly caught me eye here, for De Sousa again to land the big race spoils. The horse showed up well on the AW on his penultimate start off a big weight, and he could take advantage of a feather weight here having been used to saddling fair weights over obstacles. He'll appreciate conditions, albeit might want a bit more watering to be seen to best effect, but he could get the box seat sat just in behind the leaders if breaking on terms looking at the pace maps. He cantered over the field in a slowly ran affair, and quickened up appreciatively looking to have more to give at Kempton. A 4lb rise for that might not be enough to keep him out of the frame at a fair enough price in what is ultimately a bit of a lottery. His 2nd to Rubaud in a Listed event on reappearance suggests enough ability to make a mockery of this mark for a trainer that is a fair 12 from 73 on the flat this season.

14:35 2:35 Chester

Parlando

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Rinse repeat of yesterdays non runner write up, and as I thought yesterday, Parlando could be another one to come out of the Lincoln with credit having been given a bit of an odd passage. Starting in 4, he switched groups having seemingly been settled on the far side. He then met plenty of interference before eventually staying on past beaten horses in ground that perhaps wasn't ideal (was his first run on soft). A length defeat to a now 98 rated horse off levels on his penultimate run on these shores reads well in the context of a mark of 90, and his runs prior to his Lincoln effort abroad were largely consistent. He's got a wide draw to contend with, and with 4 forward goers on his inside he could get a good sit behind them with a clear break. My assumption is the cutaway will be removed which could well inconvenience, but I think he's worth chancing all the same. He has been ridden forward in the past which I think will be a plus if he can get forward and go with them.

13:30 1:30 Chester

Island Native

Daily Racing

25 EW

@29.00

Lose

-50

A couple of last time backed in here spearhead the market, and I wouldn’t put anyone off Percy’s Lad either which makes up the front 3. This could be the one that Franny Norton nicks on Island Native. He’s sent up in class and has an absolute feather weight to saddle here. 0/5 on turf doesn’t inspire much confidence, and he could just be outclassed in this company, but he could just be the lowest drawn pace angle in here, and if Franny can nick to the front he hopefully can make the most of his light weight. In fields of 12 to 15 runners, stall 6 has the highest A/E, producing 5 winners to a 2.13 IV (GF/G ground), as an added bonus to his stall position. The returning Visor is also of some interest as it almost sparked him into victory when first applied, bumping into a horse who has progressed 9lbs since.

09 May 2024

16:10 4:10 Chester

Parlando

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@12.00

Void

Parlando could be another one to come out of the Lincoln with credit having been given a bit of an odd passage. Starting in 4, he switched groups having seemingly been settled on the far side. He then met plenty of interference before eventually staying on past beaten horses on his first run off a break. He can improve for that, and if running to form he can get involved with Willium Buick in the saddle who was on for his debut win. A length defeat to a now 98 rated horse off levels on his penultimate run on these shores reads well in the context of a mark of 90, and his runs prior to his Lincoln effort abroad were largely consistent. He's got a wide draw to contend with, but a general lack of pace could see him get a better sit than would be anticipated, and he has been ridden forward in the past which I think will be a plus if he can get there.

14:35 2:35 Chester

Dashing Darcey

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@9.50

Lose

-50

Dashing Darcey looked interesting enough taking on a potential Stoute hotpot who has some classy back form to his name. He should be well in off this opening mark, but he’s got a speedy pedigree so perhaps going slightly further than 7f is a negative. I was taken enough with Dashing Darcey’'s reappearance effort in that he was in the clear a long way out and got picked off late by a closer. He looked to me like he just took a bit of a blow and could certainly come on significantly for that, and especially if given a bit of cover and delivered late. He looks to be on the right side of the weights for one towards the top of the speed ratings, and off a possible decent pace he’s got proven form over further so I’d hope he’d be staying on well enough. with that run under his belt.

1 member found this comment useful

14:05 2:05 Chester

Biddable

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

Rashabar has standout form, and the early 4/1 has gone, though one firm still priced at 3/1 appeals with others 9/4 or shorter mostly. The draw is against him, and it could take plenty of work from stall 10, so I just think he can be taken on. I could make a sound case for Teej A with lines in to the Seraphim Agnel form, but he's been well backed and is short enough now. So along similar lines, I though Biddable was worth a small play at a price. Dascombe's filly was 4L off Flicka's Girl who chased home Seraphim Angel yesterday. On the bare face of that, her price here looks generous. She seemingly did well to finish where she did on debut, taking a stumble early before being taken off heels multiple times and eventually having nowhere to go. She stayed on well enough after that to suggest an extra furlong will suit. She did beat Spirited Dancer into 7th who had previously finished just behind Kodibeat who was also 5th in the Seraphim Angel Race yesterday so there could be more substance to that Bath race than meets the eye.

1 member found this comment useful

13:30 1:30 Chester

Michaelas Boy

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

The setup for this race looks to me to be setting it up for one that does stay a bit further, with a likely dash to the lead on the cards from multiple stalls. There is an inevitability to that over any 5f trip, but there looks to be a real abundance of pace in here. Michaela's Boy didn't look the most obvious replacement for a non runner here, but he has a few pointers of interest. He retains a Group 1 sprint entry at Royal Ascot (even if he is 100/1), and gets a first time tongue tie here suggesting he's not been giving his best. His reappearance effort was about par based on last season reappearance, and his 2nd run was a much improved effort when 4th over 6f in a decent AW conditions race around horses rated plenty higher than this mark. His breeding would give him hope of staying further than the minimum trip, and perhaps the tongue tie can eek something out of him late on where he has often lacked a finishing effort.

1 member found this comment useful

Radio Goo Goo

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@9.00

Void

Made all a couple of times to make it 2 from 2 here from low stalls. She doesn't have that luxury here out in 8, and with a fair bit of competition for the lead as well, including on her inside. That is a worry, but I'd hope the pace is just too much to handle for some, and with form over further and a weight carry on the low side she could well be doing her best work late from a forward enough position. Trainer an excellent 14 from 54 here in the last 5 years, also being 9 from 14 a place when sending horses here last season (4 wins). She put in a career best AW RPR on her penultimate start, before getting found out saddling 10st2lbs. Hopefully this lower carry of below 9st up in class can see her home

1 member found this comment useful

08 May 2024

16:45 4:45 Chester

Way To Dubai

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Way To Dubai has Some interesting turf form in Germany, getting 6lbs from, and beating, a subsequent Group 3 winner who has run with credit after that too. This suggests to me a return to turf could mean he's a bit unexposed in this company, having been from 5 since running over here and running exclusively on the AW. His best efforts on that surface were in this class over 6 and 7f, with the 7f effort being a particularly decent effort in that he didn't get the smoothest of passages. This represents a slight drop in class into a 0-88 out of generally running in 0-95s, so he carries a fair weight but is a smooth traveller in his races, and if he can step forward for this return to turf he can still be considered well handicapped in my view. He's drawn ok in 4 to get a good pitch too as a bonus in what looks a tricky race overall.

14:05 2:05 Chester

Seraphim Angel

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 8.00 on 07/05 at 16:200.10 deduction for Night In Paris@8.00 withdrawn at 09:25R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 7.00 x (1-0.10) = 7.30

@7.30

Win

315

Seraphim Angel went well on debut at Newmarket considering enough went wrong. She started out in stall 2 and ended up hanging left throughout and ending up almost on the other rail. She didn't quite get up the hill as a result from a forward position, but if she ends up on the front end here where she'll be naturally hanging left anyway she could end up staying on a bit more stoutly. That race has already taken a boost, with Lucid 7th, coming out and placing 2nd. The horse in 9th has subsequently finished a similar distance behind Mountain Breeze at Newmarket who looked a proper sort of a horse, but actually won in a slower time than the race in which this horse was involved in over the same course and distance on similar ground so I think you can upgrade the effort. The bundle of pace on does concern slightly, though she has some hope of getting a bit further so could be staying on best.

1 member found this comment useful

13:30 1:30 Chester

Exponista

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

I backed this horse in a Listed race at Bath when drawn high, and she just never got into the race, getting bumped about and absolutely no run at all late on. She made some decent late gains, and back up in trip looks a plus for her, previously making all over 6f at Nottingham. From her draw there is every chance she can nick to the front or forward and prove to be well handicapped off 89, dropping significantly in class for this. She'll saddle her share of weight as a result which does concern slightly, but given she acquitted herself well enough in Group 3 company last season, beaten 3L in and around 100+ rated horses at a big price, I think she's capable of saddling this on handicap debut and looks worth another chance overall at what looks a fair price. Rossa Ryan needs to break his duck at Chester, being 10 from 37 a place without winning, though 7 of those came from 21 runs in stall 5 or below, and 7 of the 10 were 2nds.

1 member found this comment useful

06 May 2024

16:20 4:20 Windsor

Lady Dreamer

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@8.00

Void

Tricky one, and I landed on 3 of the top 4 in the betting as it stands. The outsider of those 3 I’ll take a chance on with Lady Dreamer. Cheekpieces are relaxed by the Visor which did the trick last year. She had a wide draw and ducked left early at Kempton on reappearance, then racing a bit keenly so ultimately did well to come round the field and run on into 5th. She stepped forward markedly for the run last year so should well progress here, with the ground being the biggest unknown. She did place with soft in places at Carlisle off a 6lb higher mark, so there is some hope at least that she can take to softer going. A lack of pace here is interesting, and she could be asked to go forward by Levey who has a sound record here, and is 3/4 a place on her.

1 member found this comment useful

15:35 3:35 Curragh

Gregarina

Daily Racing

25 EW

@21.00

Win

600

A 3 strong hand for Joseph O’Brien, with Ryan Moore booked on Jumbly. It’s a horse that switches to him that I thought has shown a bit more class than a mark of 101 would suggest, most notably when chasing home Poker Face, and that looks comparable to some of the best soft ground form on offer here. She’ll have a want for further, but with some guaranteed pace involved with Doom, and probably Purple Love, this could turn into more of a test than it appears on the face of jt. That should play into the hands of this one to close late on if she can get a decent track position and go with the pace.

1 member found this comment useful

14:30 2:30 Beverley

La La Lucrative

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@10.00

Lose

-50

Going against a previously backed here dangerously, but I thought La La Lucrative was of interest for an in form Gemma Tutty who has been having an excellent season so far. Chasing home 84 and 85 rated horses in receipt of 7lbs looks a fair enough effort for an opening mark of 62. I think that effort could be marked up to a degree as she was pulling really hard under a slow pace, and only faded in the last 1/2 furlong. They could be better served just to let her go and see if she stays a strongly run 5f, which on breeding she should as she’s bred for further. I thought she had more under the bonnet than she showed, given an easy enough time late on when last seen. As long as she doesn’t run too fresh, I think she is interesting, and if she does get a cheap lead or at least get forward she can make the most of being on the low side of the weight carries.

1 member found this comment useful

05 May 2024

15:40 3:40 Newmarket

Elmalka

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 29.00 used instead of 26.00 takenBOG

@29.00

Win

840

A 1000gns that doesn’t appear to have one absolute standout candidate, and I’m happy to side with an outsider here. Elmalka would probably have come into this with an unblemished record but for dwelling and getting bumped from the stalls in the Fred Darling. She had to switch late when in behind horses and tanked home once she got some clear air. She’ll want a longer trip potentially in time, so this step up a furlong looks a big positive, as does the forecast strong pace. She’s a half sister to Benbatl so could take to this track as well as the forecast ground, and whilst she’s got form to turn round with Regal Jubilee she could find the required improvement here and looks worth a chance at the odds to be staying on best.

1 member found this comment useful

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Bague Dor

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@8.00

Win

350

A decent 121 record here, and some hope in his pedigree that he’ll get the extra distance with his dam being out of a 1m6f winner. He’ll benefit from a low weight carry to help see him home, and the ground looks in his favour given he’s only missed the frame once on good of better from 9 starts outside of Novice company. He has a 122 record fresh, so I’d have no worry backing him off a break even if he probably needs to match or better his career best efforts here.

1 member found this comment useful

14:25 2:25 Newmarket

Stay Alert

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@7.00

Win

300

These are split by just 6lbs on rating making this hard to pick apart, and that would immediately put me off Silver Lady who runs under a penalty. This will cut down to 6 I expect with Novus running on Saturday, so I’m picking from 4. Of those, the one that has shown the most is probably Stay Alert, notching some fair efforts in defeat in Group 1 company. She was beat 2nd time up last year, but the drop in trip is just of interest to me as she pulled hard on her first start last season. She could get away with doing that here over a shorter distance and still be staying on. She is a full sister to a dual Newmarket winner, giving her a fair chance of taking to the track too. Notching RPRs of 104 to 114 on Good or better, I think the balance of her form gives her an edge over these.

1 member found this comment useful

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

Strutting

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Some interesting form on show with the likes of Kalpana (behind Inisherin before being a 10L victor) a standout Fav, and Winter Snowfall beating a subsequent 10L victor last time. They’re not taken on lightly, but I was inclined to side with the Gosdens 2nd string on jockey bookings here. She’s going to want every yard of this on breeding, and holds an Oaks entry. There looks a fair bit of pace on, and if they go too hard and she can go with them my sense is she won’t be stopping. She was ridden forward last time stepped up in trip and stayed on gamely having been off the bridle from a way out to win going away. Her form behind 97 rated True Cyan here over 7f reads well class wise given that horse reappeared with a fair 4th in a Group 3. This horse took some knocking around there but still stuck to the task nicely enough over what will be a trip too short, and that track experience can stand her in good stead to take to this.

1 member found this comment useful

04 May 2024

17:15 5:15 Newmarket

Jungle Mac

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 26.00 used instead of 21.00 takenBOG

@26.00

Win

100

You have to dig quite deep into this horses pedigree to decide if he wants this far, but who is to argue with Jack Channon who is in flying form. Regardless he looks well handicapped off 79 on turf efforts to me, most notably finishing behind 86 rated Al Shabab Storm at Goodwood. He stayed fairly well that day off a strong pace, and a lack of pace in this can possibly help him stay the extra yardage. He stayed on well at Salisbury when seemingly unbalance late on which would concern slightly coming here, but overall I think the negatives are baked well enough into his price for a small play in this big field h'cap.

1 member found this comment useful

15:35 3:35 Newmarket

Inisherin

Daily Racing

25 EW

@41.00

Lose

-50

Inisherin went pretty well here on debut against a 3 times raced and subsequent Derby trial winner Bellum Justum. He followed that up with a facile success, comfortably dispatching a subsequent 10L winner in Kalpana. He could sneak into this off the front end, with a lack of clear front runners anywhere else in the field. The main concern is he sets it up nicely for one to stay past him (City Of Troy), but whilst the latter's win was visually impressive here in the Dewhurst, I'm not completely convinced by the form to be backing one so short despite the overall vibes surrounding him. Owners have this horse in here alongside one of the favs in Rosallion which I thought was of some interest in that this one may appreciate the surface a bit more. Kevin Ryan couldn't be going too much better, and did have a big priced 2nd in this last year with one off the front. He had a big priced 5th with Juan Elcano in 2020 too, so he's got a bit of recent form in the race to suggest he doesn't throw this one in lightly.

1 member found this comment useful

14:20 2:20 Newmarket

Kings Code

Daily Racing

25 EW

@51.00

Lose

-50

Consistent on the AW since finishing a distant last here on his last turf start, but he did bleed from the nose that day so had excuses. I think he's priced on that 14 of 14, because he does stay this far on the AW, and did have a record of 131 on turf for David Evans prior to that effort. He did well to finish 4th on his penultimate start when taken back and outpaced. He got majorly hampered in the home straight, and with a clear a run he would have got much closer. A lack of pace suggests he might struggle to come from off it, but a big field handicap here could end up just being run quicker than forecast so I'm happy to side with one that should be staying on past beaten horses as he does get further.

1 member found this comment useful

03 May 2024

15:15 3:15 Goodwood

Alcazan

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@13.00

Void

I like one from off the front at Goodwood, and especially in soft/heavy ground which can be harder to make ground in off the pace. Alcazan will do for me here, with a 2/2 record at the track and leading on both occasions. She could end up with a bit of company here, but with a light weight she can stay on best. Heavy ground is an unknown, but she gets a 6lb swing with one of the market principles here and a feather 8st2lbs to take round. That might not be enough to turn the tables with that 9/2 shot in Bishop's Crown, but hopefully he'll just get caught a bit too far back this time round and needs to prove he can back up that sort of effort. This one can strip fitter for the run too, having won twice from 3 efforts off breaks, and winning 3rd time up last term.

1 member found this comment useful

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Zouky

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@10.00

Void

Zouky put in a career best AW effort first time out for the season, fading late over a mile at Kempton. She drops in class here for this drop in trip which looks a plus, with her record at 7f being 125, and the 5 was only a 1/2L defeat in a blanket finish. Bar getting trounced at York, her turf record reads well, so if she can transfer the AW improvement back to this surface I think she can go well. A more truly run race than last time can hopefully help her, and she did beat Dark Thirty on similar terms previously when coming from a seemingly impossible position to pick him up late suggesting she can be pushing on up the rising ground.

1 member found this comment useful

02 May 2024

18:35 6:35 Punchestown

Churchstonewarrior

Daily Racing

25 EW

@26.00

Lose

-50

2 from 2 on GY ground, this horse reverts to Hurdles having failed to make a mark over fences this season. He goes off an 11lb lower Hurdles mark for this return to Hurdles which reads well with a look back to his Hurdle form. A defeat of 155 rated chaser Mahler Mission when last seen over these obstacles suggests a mark of 135 is attainable, as does chasing home Gaillard Du Mesnil the time before who is rated similarly. If he can run anywhere near that I see no particular reason he can't get involved in this. Mark Walsh is 3/7 a place for the trainer over Hurdles, winning twice, and is an interesting booking in a race like this.

16:15 4:15 Punchestown

Pats Choice

Daily Racing

25 EW

@51.00

Lose

-50

More exposed than many, but the 50/1 about Pat's Choice made some minor appeal back on a sounder surface. 6/8 a place on G/Y or better, he hasn’t raced on it in almost a year. The pick of his runs this year could see him involved, with a 7/8L defeat by Path D'Oroux or interest. He'll get a 9lb swing for that, and does have a bit to find with Solness on similar terms but the price differentiation is as such that I think he's worth a small play given his overall profile and the return to a sounder surface. He was upsides at the last having probably been left to go forward a bit too early, so a bit more restraint and a shorter trip and light weight will hopefully all combine to a decent effort at a price.

01 May 2024

15:25 3:25 Ascot

Moulin Booj

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@8.00

Lose

-50

Looked worth a small wager to transfer sound AW efforts back to turf. He ran on well from a fairly compromising position at Lingfield last time to be nearest at the finish running through horses. A stiff straight 5 could be up his street, and at the very least he should get a fair crack at it. Ground on the soft side isn’t necessarily ideal but he does have two 2nds on Soft/Heavy, and one of those off a big weight. This one is ultimately a bit more about not seeing what else can win, rather than being particularly strong that this horse will, so a small chance it is.

14:50 2:50 Ascot

Rosario

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@19.00

Lose

-50

I’m minded to forgive Rosario a seasonal reappearance first time on the AW. A wide draw combined with missing the break he was never involved. He can show up better with soft in the description given some of his form, notably chasing home Inquisitively at Newmarket who is rated 108, and which is better than anything on show here. He was a similar distance behind that horse as Purosangue was previously, so the disparity in price between them looks too big. This stiff test could suit as he seemed to want a bit further on breeding, and with some guaranteed pace involved it could be run quicker than ideal for some.

13:10 1:10 Ascot

Diligently

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.50

Lose

-50

The standard set by those with a run doesn’t look particularly blistering in the Ascot opener, so I thought newcomer Diligently was worth a small play. He’s the most expensive purchase on show, bred by Cheveley Park. He’s quite closely related to recent Greenham winner Esquire, with him being by Harry Angel out of this horses grandmother. Diligently is also by Harry Angel, out of a half sister to Audience and Dark Lady who were smart enough on their day, particularly the former. Cox’s 2yo’s regularly run well first time out, with 18 placed out of his last 37, 5 winning.

30 April 2024

16:15 4:15 Punchestown

Jasko Des Dames

Daily Racing

25 EW

@13.00

Lose

-50

The unexposed ones appeal most, and of those, Jasko Des Dames looked of most interest to me for Rachael and Henry. You have to strike a line through his last run, where he was given some tender handling off a break so hopefully that was just a prep for this. A mark of 125 looks lenient on his previous efforts, in particular a 2nd to Lisnagar Fortune off levels with that horse posting an RPR of 139. The pair had Baring Bingham 4th Mercurey in behind who himself is now rated 142. He beat now 137 rated Jigoro on debut in France, and whilst that horse has turned round that form since, it shows the latent ability is there if on a going day.

15:05 3:05 Punchestown

Petit King

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@19.00

Void

Just a few lengths off a now 124 rated horse getting 3lbs last time, this horse gets an added claim to take him down to 112 here. He beat Morrisons over CD in December giving a stone away and runs off levels here against that horse who is 10/1, whilst also being on similar terms with Dancing Jeremy who is also shorter and who he also beat. Brynes is 3/7 a place when riding for this trainer in the last year, winning twice. If he can get the horse to lie up with the pace, which doesn’t look overly strong, I think he has a chance better than his odds of going well.

29 April 2024

18:39 6:39 Windsor

First Officer

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@9.00

Win

240

Last two runs off breaks resulted in a win and a peak RPR for the season, so there is every chance this horse can go well fresh here. One of those (the win) was also on soft, and he's a fair record on Heavy going so perhaps the softer the better for him here, though he did dissapoint a couple of times on soft last season (but did go off fav on both occasions. A 7lb claimer takes him down to an interesting mark given he way he finished last season, and if he runs anywhere that even (RPR83) or near that peak effort last season (RPR93) then an adjusted mark of 69 can be considered kind. He'll be down to on of his lowest weight carries off 8st9lbs, and he's rarely been far away saddling 9st3lbs or less. The race lacks overall pace, and on his reappearance efforts previously mentioned he either made all in the win and led in the 3rd. Similar tactics could work well here especially given that relative feather weight.

15:15 3:15 Ayr

Leap Year Lad

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@13.00

Lose

-50

Kevin Ryan has sent 14 horses to Ayr in April/May in the last 5 years, and 7 of them have placed, with him being 2/3 a place in April with one winner. He sends a sole runner here, and he’s 10/20 a place with Sole runners here since 2019 with 4 of those winning. That’s above his usual place strike rate, and he’s been going well so far this season with 13 winners from 73 being well above his usual strike rate. This horse has potential to go well fresh, going really well off a break in Feb last year when not getting a run. His first win came around this time last year, and a couple of efforts at longer trips have been fair enough. Up in class he’ll feel the benefit of a lesser weight burden in this which can help him see it out. His most recent effort on GS ground reads well, chasing home a now 86 rated horse to within a length a few starts back in receipt of just 8lbs, so a mark of 68 could be attainable.

28 April 2024

17:25 5:25 Southwell

King Of York

Daily Racing

25 EW

@17.00

Lose

-50

A 2311 record over Course and Distance, this horse is down below a last winning one just a few starts after winning thanks to getting 2lbs back and a 3lb on claim added here. Claimer Whittington is far from prolific which is a worry, but if you’re factoring extra places you could argue this horse has placed on 11 of 12 starts here which just looks too good to ignore given his price. A lack of overall pace is a concern for one that will want to come from off the pace, but at the very least he’s got a feather weight to factor in here. I wonder whether a wide draw could force them to take her forward, and it’s of interest to me that she posted a peak speed rating over CD when off a feather weight and taken forward.

15:30 3:30 Wetherby

Astral Spirit

Daily Racing

50 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 8.50 on 28/04 at 08:460.10 deduction for Ey Up Its The Boss@7.00 withdrawn at 09:590.00 deduction for Yoshimi @34.000 withdrawn at 11:030.00 deduction for Soames Forsyte @17.000 withdrawn at 11:030.00 deduction for Time Tells All @13.000 withdrawn at 11:19R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 7.50 x (1-0.1) = 7.75

@7.75

Win

337

3/3 a place on Soft or worse, the bare face off this horses form can have her well handicapped. Her last run in October saw her finish just a length or so behind a horse now rated 87, and getting just a few lbs there. It does shine a mark of 70 in a relatively good light, and whilst her want for a mile can be questioned I’m happy to take a chance there as she should want it on breeding. She’s a half sister to Astral Beau who stepped on as a 4yo, and feasibly this horse can too.

27 April 2024

15:35 3:35 Sandown

Bangers And Cash

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

Only 2 of the last 14 renewals have been won by horses saddling more than 11st1lb, which is a crude enough way to cut down the field granted but is a way nonetheless. Bangers And Cash ultimately made some appeal to me off this feather weight 10st4lbs. He's had a season where he's improved with every start, most recently running a sound race off a big weight round here. A 3m4f winner saddling 12st in March last year off this mark, he could just be one to take a step forward again. The retained cheekpieces seem to have done the trick to upturn his form, and it surprised me he was still just an 8 year old as I feel like he's been around for ages. Waterered ground to Good to Soft should suit him nicely, and I suspect it will ride softer than described. He should appreciate a decent forecast pace, and with that low weight to help him he could end up staying if he stay on the sharp end.

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14:05 2:05 Leicester

Miss Cantik

Daily Racing

25 EWNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 23.00 used instead of 10.00 takenBOG

@23.00

Win

660

Brings some interesting French form to British handicap debut, and she makes some appeal. She beat recent Listed scorer Adelaise into 5th when finishing 2nd in Listed company herself, in a race where the 4th has come out and beaten fair markers in Dilawar and Skazino. She’s 2 from 2 over a mile, the most recent of which was dead heating with another fair marker in Excellent Truth. It would suggest to me that a mark adjusted for claim of 96 is attainable here for a trainer that is 6/7 a place in recent days, with 3 of those winning. She could be ridden to lead in a race that doesn’t have an obvious pace setter which I think will be beneficial.

26 April 2024

15:35 3:35 Sandown

Prince Rasam

Daily Racing

25 EW

@41.00

Lose

-50

Looked a plodder of a horse on his 1 and only start, and whilst you can find plenty of excuses for Deira Mile not winning that race, this horse still looked professional enough when heading him late on. He proved to be complicated in the stalls, but less so in the run when really asserting late on, and ultimately beating a horse that has gone on to be rated 109 by a couple of lengths. It’s a level of form to match the best of these on ratings at least even if he was a bit flattered there, but it does give him the bonus of being 1 of not very many of these already proven at the trip. It's certainly form that has him overpriced enough to take a small stab for some interest in what looks an open race besides Arabian Crown.

14:25 2:25 Sandown

Artistic Star

Daily Racing

25 EWNAP

@17.00

Lose

-50

Artistic Star has something to prove, but he's always looked the type to me that would improve from 3 to 4. He won on his 2nd start over Course and distance in a fair enough time. Indeed with a repeat of that he would have won that last two renewals of this to have been run on similar ground, races won by Crystal Ocean and My Dream Boat. With no obvious pace there is a small chance he takes a lead, or at the very least be forward which should suit if the race isn't run too quickly. The way he's travelled in his races, dropping a couple of furlongs looks no negative for him, whereas Desert Hero will want further, and the same can be said of Israr. This horse was ahead at the 2f pole in the King Edward VII and weakened late on which I think just adds to his case at this lesser trip, and certainly at the current odds available. The ground is probably more in his favour too, certainly again over the current fav.

13:15 1:15 Sandown

Tan Rapido

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

It’s possible to make sound cases for many of these, but I’ll chance a small ew on Tan Rapido for Charlie Fellowes who has had an excellent start to the season. This horse showed some dash on his only start on turf, making a strong mid race move and seeing it out to the line to win in a decent enough time at Windsor. Beaten on seasonal debut, he looked to get a get a bit lonely in front when picked up late, but with a straight run he’d have won snuggly under a penalty. He can strip fitter for that, and goes off a feather weight here which can help him get home off a predictably strong pace.

25 April 2024

14:45 2:45 Beverley

Elegant Erin

Daily Racing

50 WINNAP

@5.50

Lose

-50

Said no play today, but Group chat has convinced me that last time backed Elegant Erin can go in here back at Beverley. She missed the kick with my money on last time, and did well to finish 4th in a race where the pace held up well. She drops back in class here at a level where looks capable, on ground that she acts on, and at a course where she has an excellent record. She was a course and distance winner on reappearance in 2022 (OR 65), and won off 2lbs higher than mark of 79 over CD again on soft ground. She was 6th of 6 in the listed Beverley Bullet, but was close chasing home horses rated between 98 and 108. She seems to have a habit of dwelling in the stalls which does remain a concern, but with that course form I think in the end she's hard to overlook despite a high draw also not being in her favour.

24 April 2024

15:17 3:17 Catterick

Willolarupi

Daily Racing

25 EW

@12.00

Lose

-50

Large chunks of this horses form give him a good chance of being well handicapped off this mark of 70. Tried up in trip on his last start as a 2yo he just never got involved, but back to 5f and on a surface that he acts on I think he can go well. He finished in and around horses rated 80+ now on his last two starts over 5f on soft ground. It’s a risk over 5f, but there seems to be a majorly contested pace so it could pay this time round to side with one to swing from off the pace.

14:12 2:12 Catterick

Zoom Star

Daily Racing

50 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@7.50

Void

A bit of something to prove off the back of a poor seasonal return, but Zoum Star is a 2 time course and distance winner that acts well on the ground. 5/6 a place on Soft, 2 of which were wins here, she finds herself on the right side of the weight carries here having been top weight last time in Heavy ground. She’s entitled to improve for the run, as she did from first to second last season. She has a good draw with high favoured over course and distance.

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