bledge

Worked in Property Investment then Financial Analysis whilst running a system in the background to find winners before leaving work to pursue the horses full time. Manage my bankroll similar to a dividend portfolio wherein profits are reinvested monthly (loss deducted) and stakes realigned to be 5% of the total. Avg 27% monthly gain on stakes (bet £1 return £1.27) over the last 12 months, 20% all time and 56% across festivals. 10/12 last months in profit producing 411% growth over the year. 28% 1st strike rate, 57% of all bets hit the top 3. Like to find favs that should win and rarely back out of the top 3 in the betting.

Estimated Prizes
this month

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Estimated Prize money
this month

bledge's Tips History

12 May 2024

15:30 3:30 Longchamp

Henry Longfellow

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.50

Lose

-50

Only 4/12 favs have won however 10/12 came from top 3 in the betting. Out of those 3 Henry Longfellow clearly carries the best form. OBrien's not at his best currently with a lot of his runners having needed a run, but that doubt is IMO reflected in the price and at said price its worth a bet especially when it's likely to drift. He'll likely be on a redemption mission having City Of Troy flop, and I just find it so unlikely that he has both his leading juveniles disappoint. Drawn well, will stay, ground won't be an issue. If this one gets beat too you've got to be asking serious questions about what's going on in the yard.

14:50 2:50 Longchamp

Folgaria

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

4/12 past winners where fav. 5/12 where top 3 in the betting. 10/12 had run over a mile, 6/12 had won a Group race and 10/12 had a run this season. Folgaria is already proven over the Mile when easily winning Italian G2. Was always the plan to come to the French Guineas after her win in the Fred Darling where she beat subsequent English 1000 Guineas winner. Doubt that form is a good as it reads on paper however with Sky and Will Hill paying 5 places is worth a go at the price in a race where the fav is unknown whether she'll stay, the O'Brien runner isn't particularly strong and badly drawn with stall 6 or lower producing 8/12 winners.

11 May 2024

15:00 3:00 Lingfield

Defiance

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.25

Lose

-50

20/24 winners of this this century where top 3 in the betting, 8 being fav. 16/24 had a run this season. Tipped this one up as a cover bet lto when beaten .75L over 1m2f in the Epsom Blue Riband Trial. Powered home from the back in that when looking rusty and will certainly benefit from the further distance here. Lingield has a similar sharp left hand turn down the hill as Epsom which he already has experience with being a +. Obrien has a good record here but rarely sends his leading Derby hopes to the English Trials and his pair where both beat 3L and 5L by 50/1 Dallas Star last time out. That combined with the fact hes not in the best form over here at the moment would put me off.

1 member found this comment useful

10 May 2024

15:40 3:40 Chester

Spirit Mixer

Daily Racing

25 EW

@34.00

Lose

-50

9/11 past winners where aged 4-6. 0/11 where fav 3/11 where top 3 in the betting. 8/11 where rated between 93-99. There are only two here rated between; Spirit Mixer and Citizen General. Spirit Mixer is very well-bred being by Frankel and from a Dubawi Mare. Not necessarily breeding indicative of being a stayer however he has run 2 big races over 2m. Firstly, when beaten 3L here in a Class 2 Handicap when drawn wide and unable to get cover before being bumped 1f out, secondly when .5L 2nd to Trueshan but beating the rest by 1.75L. Ended the season 6th by 1.75L in a 1m6f Heritage Handicap at Newmarket (16 runners carrying 4th top weight), again badly hampered and having to switch far wide to get a run. Had excuses since when unsuited by ground, running free and then looking to be coming with a strong challenge when being at best "weakly" driven by O Murphy. Even earlier last season won here at Chester by 2.5L carry 9st4. Balding has a good record in the race +7 LSP win and +4.75 EW. C Hutchinson takes of 3lb. Surely worth a small ew 33/1 with Wills paying 6 places.

15:05 3:05 Chester

Israr

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 5.00 on 09/05 at 02:170.00 deduction for Sunchart@29.00 withdrawn at 08:010.00 deduction for Certain Lad @13.000 withdrawn at 08:010.15 deduction for Royal Rhyme @6.500 withdrawn at 09:29R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 4.00 x (1-0.15) = 4.40

@4.40

Lose

-4

10/11 previous winners where aged 4 or 5. 5/11 where fav 11/11 where top 3 in the betting. 10/11 had 10 previous flat runs. 9/11 had a win in a group race and 8/11 had a run this season. Israr looked the winner 2f out on seasonal debut before being reeled in by 2 coming from off the pace. He possibly needed the run there, as have a few of Gosden's this season. Has a record of 16 runs-4 wins-9 places only finishing out of the top 3 once on Heavy, once on AW and once in Doha. Good ground will be fine, the Highest rated and a fine draw with lower being preferred over 1m2f+. Crowley has a 24% SR at Chester and whilst it may be an arbitrary stat the Shadwell Silks have a 30% SR here. O'Brien's Hands Andersen comes with fairly week form and Ryan appears to be having a day off. O'Brien is out of form being 1/12 this season in England. Passenger is interesting, but he hasn't produced much of interest since being an unlucky 3rd in the Dante. I like Royal Rhyme on his Champions Stakes form but will want Soft ground.

09 May 2024

14:35 2:35 Chester

Never So Brave

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@2.25

Win

1.75L 2nd behind subsequent G1 winner Ancient Wisdom on debut on Good. .75L 2nd to Vandeek next time out who has also gone on to win a G2 and 2 G1s. Won on seasonal debut comfortably by 4L picking up well in the soft ground. That was a decent time which was described by The Racing Post as "little more than a piece of work" .Drawn low in 3 being a + albeit the bias over 7f not as strong here as people believe. Ryan Moore onboard who certainly knows how to win at Chester. Potentially atleast a future Listed/G3 performer in a handicap here not even carrying top weight. Looks a fair price and can pick this up on the way to bigger and better things.

1 member found this comment useful

08 May 2024

15:40 3:40 Chester

Hidden Law

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.25

Win

112

6/11 winners where fav. 8/11 where top 3 in the betting. 9/11 had a run this season. 0/11 had already won a group race. Whilst OBrien's fav looks good he's not in the best form at the moment and this one fits the trends. Looked very impressive last time out.

15:05 3:05 Chester

Port Fairy

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 5.00 on 06/05 at 17:570.00 deduction for Ambiente Amigo@41.00 withdrawn at 18:130.10 deduction for Rubies Are Red @10.000 withdrawn at 19:210.00 deduction for Flying Finn @26.000 withdrawn at 08:39R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 4.00 x (1-0.1) = 4.60Best Odds Guaranteed SP 8.00 used instead of 4.60 BOG

@8.00

Win

O'Brien has a record of 17 runs-8 wins-12 places in this race. Ryan Moore has a record of 15-6-8. An Oaks trial has been planned for this one since her win at Dundalk where she won from the front which is what you need at Chester. That's not exactly strong form, however they expect further improvement from her and O'Brien has won this race before with horses with not the strongest form coming in. Drawn well. Entered in the Irish Oaks. Dam's sire Fastnet Rock has already produced 2 winners of this race with the only sire higher being Galileo with 4 winners. Fav Galileo Dame looks to be a pattern performer in waiting however jockey hasn't ridden at Chester in the last 5 years which with it being quite a special track massively puts me off. Worth a shot EW at 4/1 but won't like it too Soft.

1 member found this comment useful

05 May 2024

15:40 3:40 Newmarket

Dance Sequence

Daily Racing

25 EW

@5.50

Lose

-50

Charlie was very complimentary about this one after her run in the Nell Gwyn where he said she'll be all over the step-up to a mile, she was "still learning" and that they hadn't trained her for that race but for her to be her best here. 9/12 winners had a previous run at Newmarket and 8/12 winners had a previous run this season, those are 2 massive plusses for this one where most of the top in the betting haven't run yet. Can't help feel as though if she was good enough she'd of won the Nell Gwyn despite not being her best but willing to take a chance EW 4 places. Also, on Fallen Angel.

1 member found this comment useful

Fallen Angel

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.33

Lose

-50

Top-rated 2yo in Britain and Ireland last season. Sire was top 2yo before winning 2 Group 1s at 3 so likely to have trained on. Ground versatile and Danny will be able to put her wherever he wants in this. Karl Burke has talked the talk as he did with Rosallion who ran a big race yesterday in the 2k, so his faith may be well-placed again. The favs have a horrible record in this 1/12 but looking at the main market principles non fill me with confidence. Couldn't be backing OBrien's after the dismal display by his 2nd coming of Christ yesterday City of Troy. The French horse won't stay a mile. Appleby's is probably the main danger but again wasn't filled with confidence by her reappearance however flattering Charlie was after the run. Keeping it simple and backing what was the best horse in the race and that is Fallen Angel however will also be on Dance Sequence.

1 member found this comment useful

04 May 2024

16:50 4:50 Punchestown

Kargese

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 3.25 used instead of 2.62 takenBOG

@3.25

Win

112

7/11 last winners where fav. 8/11 where top 3 in the betting. Ran well behind Sir Gino at Aintree despite pulling hard. Ran well in the Triumph at Cheltenham before that where looking the winner before being outstayed in the Heavy ground. Likely the best horse in this race and on form she should win.

15:35 3:35 Newmarket

City Of Troy

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@1.73

Lose

-50

By far the best 2yo last season. Form recently boosted by Haatem albeit looking much improved on last season. If trained on he wins.

03 May 2024

16:10 4:10 Newmarket

Castle Way

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.33

Lose

-50

7/11 last winners where aged 4. 3/11 where fav and 8/11 where top 3 in the betting. 7/11 had a previous run at Newmarket and 8/11 had a run this season. Castle Way had some nice form last season beating Circle of Fire on reappearance (2 time Aussie winner since) before going on to win a G3 beating Tower of London (Ledger 4th and Dubai Gold Cup winner). Ended the season behind Continuous who went on to win the Ledger and finish 5th in the Arc. Didn't pick up from 2f out on seasonal reappearance however endoscopic exam post race revealed EIPH so likely did well to finish 4th under the circumstance. Appleby has a 31% SR here with 4yos and won this last year with Hurricane Lane on his 2nd run of the season so likely to want to repeat that with one of his 2 runners here, Castle Way having Buick onboard and being the stronger of the pair looks the pick. The Biggest danger Time Lock looked impressive with CD win last season however the form has subsequently been let down by pretty much every horse in behind that has ran since.

1 member found this comment useful

01 May 2024

14:50 2:50 Ascot

Purosangue

Daily Racing

25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 5.00 on 29/04 at 19:590.10 deduction for Malc@8.00 withdrawn at 13:09R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 4.00 x (1-0.10) = 4.60Best Odds Guaranteed SP 5.50 used instead of 4.60 BOG

@5.50

Lose

-3

6/12 last winners where fav. 8/12 where top 3 in the betting. 6/12 won on their last run. Only 4/12 had a previous run this season. Puronsangue ran 2nd 3 times last season over 5f behind Big Evs (Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf Winner), Inquisitively (G3 Winner) and Beautiful Diamond (Queen Mary 3rd). Stepped upto 6f for final race of the season where he beat Esquire .75L gamely who won the G3 Greenham at Newbury 2 weeks ago. That race was on Soft. PJ Mcdonald said after "he has great mental strength and i'd be confident he'll train on". Best form in this and with Sky paying 4/1 4 places is a brilliant bet.

14:15 2:15 Ascot

Sweet William

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.75

Lose

-50

9/12 last winners where age 4-6. 4/12 where fav and 8/12 where top 3 in the betting. 9/12 had a previous run at Ascot but only 4 had a previous win here. 2/12 had a run this season. Sweet William improved for every run last season winning 3 races before 2nd in the Ebor by .5L to Absurde who had the rail. Finished 1.25L 2nd behind Trueshan after that on Trueshan's favoured Soft ground where he looked the winner before hanging left and probably being oustayed over the 2m2f. Ended the season 3rd behind Trawlerman and Kyprios here on Champions Day beating both Trueshan and Coltrane. Recieves 7lb from Trueshan here. Gosden operating at a 27% strike rate will likely have this one ready and if improved further from last year should pick this up on the way to further Cup runs throughout the season.

26 April 2024

15:00 3:00 Sandown

Nostrum

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-50

Only 4 of the last 11 winners had a run this season. 5/11 had a previous run at Sandown. 4/11 where fav and 10/11 where top 3 in the betting. Beat Arrest on debut who has since won 2 G3s and placed 2nd in the Ledger. Ran quite well as a 2yo when beating a Royal Ascot winner before finishing 2.5L behind 2kGuineas winner Chaldean. Looked better on reappearance as a 3yo when easily winning a Listed race before being beaten 1L by Epictetus in ground to Soft. Ryan said after that he felt like he had a puncture in the last 100 yards. James Savage (assistant trainer) described him as a "very, very smart horse". Finished lame last start of the season. Likely to imrove again as a 4yo and should be able to pick what looks like a weak G2 up to start his season with Lord North probably past his best and dropping back to a mile for the first time since 2019 and Charyn albeit looking better on his seasonal debut that was only a Listed race and in his favoured Soft ground. Stoute has a 22% win rate with 4yo here at profit of +43.56.

13:50 1:50 Sandown

Cogitate

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@5.50

Void

Looked potentially smart on debut when running keen before easily beating Boiling Point by 2L. That horse has since been beaten a shoulder in a G3 and was 1L 2nd in a decent looking conditions race at Newmarket last week. Cogitate was then beaten 4L in the G3 Acomb at the Ebor meet at York. I actually fancied it that day however sweated up before hand then once again ran keen and hung left. Was 2nd on seasonal debut this season to Night Raider who beat him 5L but looks to be a Group horse in the making. Cogitate beat the 3rd by 14L where he looked much more the finished article compared to last season. Charles Hills has a record of 1 win and 2 places in this race out of 5 runners. Likely to improve for the step up to a mile on breeding and as to be value at 5s ew.

23 April 2024

14:45 2:45 Epsom Downs

Defiance

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@7.00

Lose

-50

Looked decent on debut when winning over 1m Good to Soft. The 2nd in that has since won gamely and the 3rd won by 4L on Monday at Windsor and was only beaten 2.75L in the G1 Futurity at Doncaster in October. Defiance also ran 6th (beaten 4L by Ghostwriter) in the G2 Royal Lodge which also looks pretty solid form. Likely to improve over 1m2f based on breeding. O'briens Chief Little Rock looks the main danger, however has had quite a few beat at short prices since the start of the season and appears to be sussing his runners out at the moment (this is one without an entry in the Derby).

20 April 2024

15:35 3:35 Ayr

Inis Oirr

Daily Racing

25 EW

@10.00

Lose

-50

5/11 previous winners where top 3 in the market. 10/11 carried 10st to 11st3. Presumably saved for this since 21L win last time out. Venetia knows what shes doing with these types of chasers and will likely improve again. 7 places available with Sky.

14:40 2:40 Newbury

Zoum Zoum

Daily Racing

25 EW

@5.00

Lose

-5

5/11 last winners where fav. 8/11 top 3 in the betting. Won comfy last time out in a French Listed race by 1.25L. Looks a fairly weak race to me and if trained on looks the winner.

18 April 2024

13:50 1:50 Newmarket

North View

Daily Racing

25 EW

@9.00

Lose

-50

Won comfortably last time out by 1.75L where Jane Chapple-Hyam spoke very highly of him. Beaten .75L 2nd the time before. The winner of that won here on Tuesday. Was supposed to run in the G3 Horris Hill Stakes here last November but scoped wrong so they obviously think he is better than a handicaper. Only carrying 8st11 and with everywhere paying 5 places ew looks a solid bet.

1 member found this comment useful

Woodhay Wonder

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@13.00

Win

600

Great record at Newmarket winning 3/4. Only loss was in the G2 Duchess of Cambridge on the July course by 5.25L where she hit a flat spot and went left before keeping on. Won last time out on this course by 4L. Was quoted after that as "not just a 2 year old" and "definitely a filly for next year". The G3 Fred Darling at Newbury was supposed to be her start of season target but for whatever reason has come here. Possibly due to ground being more to her liking. Possible Group horse in a handicap and looks a fair bet ew at the price with everywhere paying 5. Marquand onboard.

1 member found this comment useful

17 April 2024

15:35 3:35 Newmarket

True Cyan

Daily Racing

25 EW

@11.00

Lose

-50

4/11 last winners where fav. 7/11 where top 3 in the betting. 8/11 where either in the first 4 or last 4 stalls. 8/11 winners had a previous run here with 5 having won. Comes here a 1.5L CD winner after winning a 17 runner maiden last season, the 2nd and 3rd in that have since won. Varian talked of running her in the Oh So Sharp stakes(G3) after that so they obviously thought alot of her. Downside would be that she has only ran the once but it was an impressive debut thats since worked out well and at the price is a solid ew bet. James Doyle onboard a +.

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Ottoman Fleet

Daily Racing

50 WINNOTETip made at odds of 4.50 on 16/04 at 17:270.20 deduction for Royal Rhyme@5.00 withdrawn at 09:01R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 3.50 x (1-0.20) = 3.80

@3.80

Win

140

4/11 winners where fav. 7/11 last winners of this where top 3 in the betting. 11/11 had a previous run at Newmarket. 6/11 had a previous win here. Ottoman Fleet won this race last year by 2l comfy after having a very similar prep to this year (runs at Meydan) where he has placed in both a G1 and G2. Last run can be wrote of after running flat and Appelby has won this race the prior 2 years. Can pick this up again this year on his return to the UK. 6/1 was availble earlier in the week so would be an ew bet if it gets to around that price again.

13 April 2024

16:00 4:00 Aintree

Kittys Light

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@13.00

Lose

-50

Winner of the Scottish National and the Sandown Gold Cup last season. Not been as good this season but comes alive at this time of year and Christian Williams has certainly been talking his chances up. Proven over the trip however ground is a question mark. Been aimed here all season and can surely run a big race carrying 10st 7. Part of the bet is a heart over head job but i feel as though thats partly what you need in the national and although it goes against everything id normally say in regards to a bet i can see him running a massive race. Has to be a solid ew for 6 places possible 7/8 with sky.

2 members found this comment useful

Mr Incredible

Daily Racing

25 EW

@15.00

Lose

-50

2/11 last winners where favs/ joint favs. 3/11 where in the top 3 in the betting. 8/11 where 11/1 or bigger. 9/11 carried between 10st3 and 11st5. 8/11 had previous run here. The stats cleary favour backing at a bigger price. Beaten 1 3/4L in the Midlands national last time out carrying top weight in heavy. Was running a good race in this last year when saddle slipped at the canal turn. Clearly aimed at coming back here and after running a big race last time surely has had a perfect prep for this. Dont see more than 10 even completing with the ground as it currently is and this lad is proven over 4 miles in it. A very solid Ew bet.

2 members found this comment useful

12 April 2024

15:30 3:30 Aintree

Jonbon

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@3.50

Win

125

6/11 favs have won. 10/11 where top 3 in the betting. 10/11 had a previous run here. Nickys stable tour interview suggest they think Jonbon will be even better up in trip. Made a mess of it last time out but did well in the cicumstance to finish 1/2L 2nd and i think that run can be wrote off with the race being rescheduled/ shaky prep. Would likely have won the Champion Chase this year, had he ran, with El Fabiolo making his mistake which would have seen him much shorter than 5/2 for this. Best horse in the race and if he runs his race he wins. Wouldnt suprise me to see him much shorter if Hendersons horses fire on thursday.

1 member found this comment useful

14:55 2:55 Aintree

Dysart Enos

Daily Racing

25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@5.50

Void

The Supreme was ran in the slowest time this century by "some margin" although the ground was the worst its been since 2016. I couldnt be taking the 2nd or 3rd from that on the nose, after battling in bad ground, in this although the stats show 8/11 winners of this came from the Supreme. 7/11 winners came from the top 3 in the betting. Dysart Enos has won here, won over the D and is in receipt of 7lbs from the front 2 in the betting. Beat Golden Ace 9 L eased down here in the grade 2 bumper last year. Golden Ace has since won the Ryanair Mares Novice at Cheltenham which you could assume Dysart Enos would have won had she ran. Doubt ground will be an issue. Comes here fresh and unbeaten over hurdles. Cannot see her being out of the first 3 places.

1 member found this comment useful

11 April 2024

14:55 2:55 Aintree

Shishkin

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.00

Lose

-50

Won this last year. Best horse in the race if in form after scoping badly/ not running at Cheltenham. 8 of the last 11 winners where in the top 3 in the betting. 6 of 11 had a win at Aintree already. The trends do favour horses coming from the Gold Cup however only one of the last 6 winners that have come from the gold cup had placed there and had won. We all know a Gold Cup can leave a mark on a horse, especially one in heavy ground and at the prices it looks to me as if there is quite substantial value at 3s as opposed to Gerri at EVS knowing that Henderson will be on a redemption mission and wouldnt be running his stars here if they where still not sound.

13:45 1:45 Aintree

Ginnys Destiny

Daily Racing

50 WIN

@4.33

Lose

-50

1 of the last 11 winners was fav whereas 9 where in the top 3 in the betting. of the last 11 winners had won last time out. 8/11 had a previous run at aintree. With Ginnys Destiny and Grey Dawning being so closely matched on previous form id be siding with the selection at 10/3. 4/1 3places was available antepost so have taken that myself but wouldnt oppose a small win bet to follow quite a clear trend of favs getting beat here. In regards to Il etait Temps i cant help feel as though he has been sent here to pick up whatever prize money he can as an afterthought. Mullins rarely sends his top horses here.

09 April 2024

13:30 1:30 Deauville

Romantic Style

Daily Racing

25 EW

@7.50

Win

203

Won Newmarket Listed race on Heavy over 6f. Looked as though 7f would be fine. The 2nd from that has since won comfortably in a handicap and was beaten 2.25L in another Listed race. Sky paying 3 places ew.

Tips are normally be settled by 12pm the day after the event took place.
Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

Please note that this information is for informational purposes only and should not be relied upon as an indicator of a tipsters real life performance. The OLBG Tipster Competition is a simulation game and some of the rules and prices used by the tipsters may not always be available in the real world which can lead to misleading informaiton.