ARQ007
Travelled Man of Kent. Likes: cars, sport, eating out, working out, conversation, travel, gambling, short-sleeve shirts. All teeth my own.
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ARQ007's Tips History
15 May 2024
15:15 3:15 York
Spycatcher
Daily Racing
25 EW
@7.50
Lose
-50
Karl Burke has booked Ryan Moore just 7 times in the last 12 months (one win and 3 places) but he's put him up on his progressive 6yo Vadamos gelding who's developed into a smart sprinter. He won twice last season and was best of those held up when third in the Champions' Sprint at Ascot final start. Ran on into third in the Abernant Stakes (6f) 4 weeks ago on seasonal return and he should be better for that run.
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14:00 Alejandro Tabilo vs Zhizhen Zhang
Over 23.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.05
Lose
-50
At Odds against I have to go Overs here because, for all that clay courts generally don't favour big servers that much, here in Rome this week it's dry, sunny and hot and that's been helping players like these two. Zhang (ranked 56) has held serve here 95% of the time this tournament, Tabilo (ranked 32) 91%. These two have played just once before, and although it was on grass (Wimbledon Qualies, 2021) it was decided in 2 TBs (Zhang won). Tabilo converted just 2 of 8 BP chances LTO vs Khachanov, Zhang just 1 of 5 LTO vs Monteiro.
12:30 Diana Shnaider vs Greet Minnen
Diana Shnaider
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.25
Win
12
Minnen (ranked 76) must be cursing the draw-gods as the last match she played was in Rome vs Schnaider (ranked 62) and the 26yo Belgian was beaten in straight sets in Rome. She’s 4-5 on the clay this season wither wins against lower level opponents. The yo Russian is a talented prospect and she’s 4-3 on the dirt so far, her losses to a higher class of opposition (e.g. Badosa x2, Potapova) and I’d expect her top repeat the same result here
10:00 Giorgia Pedone vs Anna Karolina Schmiedlova
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.29
Win
14
Pedone (ranked 270) is playing just her third ever match at main WTA tour level and the 19yo Italian - who got a WC entry here in Parma - has only ever faced one top 100 opponent in her career (Estonian veteran Kanepi, who retired from their match last year). Schmiedlova (ranked 67) is a venerable clay-courter, the 29yo Slovakian may only be 3-3 on the red stuff so far in '24 but she's put in some decent poerformances in defeat to the likes of Garcia, Jabeur and Sasnovich. She's 34-27 on clay since 2022 but 24-10 vs opponents ranked 100+.
Subtotal-74
14 May 2024
20:00 8:00 Ayr
Archduke Ferdinand
Daily Racing
25 EW
@6.00
Lose
-50
Seb Spencer's 5yo Gutaifan gelding has only run oncehere at Ayr but it was a decent enough run (on stable debut, having been with Tracy Waggott before) and he's improved since then. He's still pretty low mileage I feel, with room for a bit more to come after being very narrowly denied when second of 14 in a handicap at Newcastle (7.1f) 28 days ago on seasonal return.
19:30 Coco Gauff vs Qinwen Zheng
Over 21.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.85
Lose
-50
In all honesty this is not a great deal more than a gut feel, as these two can swat opponents away as much as stumble and suffer crises of confidence. They've not met before at senior WTA level but they played once in juniors, in the 2018 Orange Bowl final which world #3 Gauff won 6-1, 3-6, 6-4. And the young American took 3 sets to get past badosa here LTO, with world #7 Zheng also taking 3 sets to beat #29 Noskova in R3. Both are adept on clay and either could win this in straight sets, but I feel there will be momentum changes.
Qinwen Zheng 2.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.85
Lose
-50
As per my Games Total write up I just feel this could be a roller coaster match of momentum swings and given they've not met before at senior WTA level (they played once in juniors, which world #3 Gauff won 6-1, 3-6, 6-4) it could go either way. With world #7 Zheng in good form she could easily win this so I'l take the head start.
18:00 Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Alex De Minaur
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Win Match
77 WIN
@1.36
Win
28
This has been a H2H heavily in favour of World #8 Tsitsipas, the 25yo Greek (a former finalist and twice a SF-ist here in Rome) leads the matchup with De Minaur (ranked 11) 12-2 and has won all 3 prior meetings on clay in straight sets. He's been in good form this clay swing with a title in Monte Carlo and a final in Barcelona and he's beaten 2 decent opponents in Struff and Norrie here in his first 2 matches. His 25yo Aussie opponent has a rather poor record here, just 4-5 with his 2 wins here this year. He's just 19-14 on dirt since 2022 and 2-6 in that span vs top 20 players, 4 of those defeats in straight sets.
Stefanos Tsitsipas to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
At Evens I'll chance world #8 Tsitsipas to do this in shiort shrift as this has been a H2H heavily in favour of the 25yo Greek, who's a former finalist and twice a SF-ist here in Rome, He leads the matchup with De Minaur (ranked 11) 12-2 and has won all 3 prior meetings on clay in straight sets. He's been in good form this clay swing with a title in Monte Carlo and a final in Barcelona and he's beaten 2 decent opponents in Struff and Norrie here in his first 2 matches. His 25yo Aussie opponent has a rather poor record here, just 4-5 with his 2 wins here this year. He's just 19-14 on dirt since 2022 and 2-6 in that span vs top 20 players, 4 of those defeats in straight sets.
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
At odds against a small risk on this going over a feasible number. Although this H2H is heavily in favour of World #8 Tsitsipas, De Minaur (ranked 11) won their last encounter in Acapulco, beating the 25yo Greek in a decider. The 25yo Aussie has just beaten Auger Aliassime and could make this a test of on his top game.
14:30 Alexander Zverev vs Nuno Borges
Alexander Zverev
Win Match
68 WIN
@1.13
Win
9
World #5 Zverev has a great record here in Rome, winner in 2017 finalist in 2018 and 18-6 career win-loss here. He's won both his first two matches here this term vs tricky opponents in straight sets and in Borges (ranked 53) faces a player whom I believe is a tad lucky to get this far. The 27yo Portuguese sneaked past Martinez in R1 (a match he had no right to win) and then faced a seemingly unmotivated Bublik, then struggled past #240 ranked Passaro in a decider.
14:30 Martina Colmegna vs Mayar Sherif
Mayar Sherif to win 2 - 0
Set Betting
50 WIN
@1.30
Win
15
Colmegna (ranked 396) plays almost solely on clay but the yo Italian has not ventured inmto the rarefied air of an actual WTA main tour event (even a lower level one such as this) very often. In fact, just 6 times in her career (back to 2016 was teh fiurst occurence) and she's 1-5, the sole victory vs a player ranked #629. Her only ever match vs a top 100 ranked opponent was that one in 2016, a one-sided straight sets defeat. Sherif (ranked 80) is a very accomplished clay-courter, the 28yo Egyptian reached a rank of #31 last year (based on her clay court swing in '23) and is 57-20 on clay since 2022, 11-2 in that span vs oppoents ranked 200+ and 10 of those wins were in straight sets. She took former world #1 Azarenka to a decider in R3 in Rome a few days ago and should do this in easy fashion.
Subtotal-98
13 May 2024
18:35 6:35 Windsor
Katey Kontent
Daily Racing
25 EW
@4.50
Win
105
Clive Cox's 4yo Havana Grey filly won her first two career starts and then contested some pretty heavy duty races (e.g. Queen Mary Stakes). She bumped into an improver on her final start as a 3yo in October when dropped to this sort of level but she's been nearer the front tnan the back in all hetr starts and a 1lb rise in the ratings looks unlikely to prevent a bold showing in this company.
17:35 5:35 Windsor
Lennox
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 4.33 on 12/05 at 23:370.00 deduction for My Dream World@26.00 withdrawn at 06:250.00 deduction for Amserda @81.000 withdrawn at 07:470.00 deduction for The Flying Falco @81.000 withdrawn at 07:490.00 deduction for Time To Roll @51.000 withdrawn at 08:190.20 deduction for Thyer @4.500 withdrawn at 10:450.35 deduction for Master Builder @2.750 withdrawn at 12:47R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 3.33 x (1-0.55) = 2.50
@2.50
Lose
-16
Harry Eustance’s 3yo Muhaarar colt from a good family and has had three very promising runs in maiden and novice company, latterly when second of 8 in a maiden at Yarmouth (8f, good to firm) 20 days ago, well clear of rest. The step up in trip should suit and on these terms - with an initial mark of 78 - he really should be bang there in this competition.
16:30 4:30 Windsor
Global Asset
Daily Racing
25 EW
@3.50
Lose
-13
William Haggas' 3yo Night Of Thunder gelding looks to me to be one brought along for handicaps, with three considerate runs in Novice/Maiden company (over 7f and 6f) under his belt last year. Staying on nicely when last seen over 6f at Lingfield in November the step up in trip and a very workable mark of 69 should give Tom Marquand something to work with here.
16:00 Hubert Hurkacz vs Tomas Martin Etcheverry
Tomas Martin Etcheverry 2.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@2.00
Lose
-50
Since winning in Estoril (where he didn’t beat anyone of note), world #9 Hurkacz has (as in seasons past) looked average on clay, as always using his serve to propel him to victory. Against better opposition (on dirt) he’s been brushed aside - Ruud and even fellow big server Fritz. A win over the fading Nadal with his weakened serve and diminished movement/return game fail to convince, neither do close wins over struggling Altmaier and Challenger level players like Choinski and Llamas Ruiz or a declining Bautista Agut. And here I’m opposing him with a top-30 natural clay courter with a strong serve and forehand combination + more attacking spin. It’s been an odd European clay swing for the 24yo Argentine, running into Tsitsipas and Ruud (champions of the tournaments in Monte Carlo and Barcelona), but he has an excellent clay court game, plays aggressively and should be able to rack up service holds against a fairly poor returner.
14:00 Tommy Paul vs Dominik Koepfer
Dominik Koepfer
Win Match
50 WIN
@2.20
Lose
-50
Admittedly a bit of a punt as Koepfer (ranked 52) generally has a better record on clay than world #16 Paul. The 30yo German has just the 2 wins on clay so far this year, both here in R1 and R2, but generally is decent on clay, 26-9 since Jan 2022 and has a decent career record vs top 50 opponents on the dirt (7-10) . For his part, Paul has a pretty poor record on the red stuff, the 26yo American is just 2-7 on the dirt since Jan 2022 vs players ranked between 10 and 60. He has a terrible record here in Rome, 3-4 career and in his only previous attempt at this event (albeit four years ago) Koepfer made the QFs from Qualies.
11:00 Elena Gabriela Ruse vs Vera Zvonareva
Elena Gabriela Ruse
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Zvonareva (ranked 257) is not far off her 40th birthday and the Russian former world #7 has played just 5 matches in 2024 at a recognised level and is 1-4. She's 1-5 on clay since 2022. Ruse (ranked 148) is 12-8 on the season and 7-4 on dirt, the 26yo Romainian made QFs in Rouen recently and gavce world #23 Garcia a decent match. She really should be winning this one.
Subtotal-4
12 May 2024
17:30 Danielle Collins vs Caroline Garcia
Danielle Collins
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.33
Win
17
You would expect world #15 Collins to win here but nothing i tip at present seems to be hitting so... Teh 30yo American is on her "farewell tour" having announced her retirement at seasons end and she had a 15 match wom streak going after grabbing titles in Miami (hard) and Charleston (US clay). That run was stopped by world #2 Sabalenka in Madrid in a deciding set and Collins' prior defeat was to world #1 Swiatek. She's not played in Rome much (6-3) but with the fine weather she should enjoy conditions. She has a 4-0 H2H record over Garcia (ranked 31), all straight sets wins, incl. at Miami this year. The 30yo French player is just 6-8 here in Rome and just hasn't looked very solid this season.
17:00 Ben Shelton vs Zhizhen Zhang
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.85
Lose
-50
It's reasonably fast in Rome when the weather is good (for a clay court) and the sun is shining today in Italy's capital. And here we have two very decent servers who've played each other just the one time before which (though in faster conditions) went to a fifth set and inlcuded a TB. Neither are what you'd describe as naturals on clay and they do rely on that big delivery, so I do like Overs here.
17:00 Juventus v Salernitana
Juventus
50 WIN
@1.14
Lose
-50
Juve have had a season not to remember but they can seasl fourth spot (and a UCL place next season) with a win here. They've won 10 of 17 at home (W10,D6,L1) and face a Salernitana side at the foot of the table, already relegated and with just 1 away win all season (W1,D4,L12).
15:30 3:30 Longchamp
Dancing Gemini
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTETip made at odds of 14.00 on 12/05 at 12:35 Best Odds Guaranteed SP 22 used instead of 14.00 taken BOG
@23.00
Win
85
With 4 places here I like Roger Teal's Camelot colt at big odds. He won a Listed race as a 2yo and wasn't beaten far whenn when finishing fifth in the Group I Futurity Trophy Stakes over a mile at Doncaster in October when last seen, that on heavy ground. He'd won on Soft ground at teh Yorkshire track prior to that so today's going should be fine and looks a big price.
Henry Longfellow
Daily Racing
50 WIN
@2.38
Lose
-50
Although the stable's star colt City Of Troy fluffed his lines in the British 2000 Guineas at Newmarket recently, this Dubawi colt was impressive when winning all three starts as a juvenile last season and with improvement likely, and ryan moore abaoard (and teh yard with a few winners again recently) is surely the one to beat.
15:15 Atletico Madrid v Celta Vigo
Atletico Madrid
50 WIN
@1.40
Win
20
Atleti can really only seasl the fourth spot in La Liga this term (and thus a UCL place next season) but can do that with a win tonight. They've won 15 of 17 games this term at the Wanda Metropolitano and have won 4 of their last 6 matches. Visitors Celta (16th) have a few points to gather to avoid teh drop but they have just 3 away wins this season (W3,D5,L9).
15:07 3:07 Newcastle
Buzz Box
Daily Racing
25 EWR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@13.00
Void
0
Bryan Smart's 3yo Adaay gelding looks a bit of value here as he won on his debut for the yard in a Noices heat over C&D in January then put in another good effort over the minimum trip here LTO. Should be more to come from just 3lb higher with the same decent 3 pound claimer aboard. SkyBet paying 4 places here.
Cross The Tracks
Daily Racing
50 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deductionBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.25 used instead of 2.20 takenBOG
@2.25
Win
62
Bet of the day for me here as Richard Spencer's 3yo gelding clearly likes it here at Newcastle. He trounced his rivals in a 7f handicap here in March (3 to 4 lengths clear through the last 2 furlongs, the field well strung out behind). He was then an excellent second in class 2 over C&D 6 weeks ago, where the third and fourth had been running consistently in decent AW handicaps this winter, so the form of that race looks very solid in the context of this lower class race.
14:50 2:50 Longchamp
Romantic Style
Daily Racing
25 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 6.30 used instead of 4.50 takenBOG
@6.30
Win
1
The Godolphin team seem to have returned to form this season and Charlie Appleby's Night of Thunder filly made good progress last year after an inauspicious start. She was supplemented for this race after having won the Group III Prix Imprudence Stakes on her reappearance at Deauville last month and with Buick aboard, surely a worthy favourite.
14:25 2:25 Leopardstown
Buttons
Daily Racing
30 EW
@2.62
Lose
-18
Aiden O'Brien's 3yo daughter of Kingman should Kingman improve from her comeback run here last month. She was a staying on third in the Group 3 Priory Belle Stakes on that occasion and should strip fitter for that, so looks one for teh forecast to me.
One Look
Daily Racing
60 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-60
Paddy Twomey's 2yo Gleneagles filly has won both her two starts in some style, initially at the Curragh and latterly a 5-runner heat at Cork (7f, heavy) 43 days ago, pushed out. The form of each of those wins looks decent and she has leading claims here.
14:00 Taylor Fritz vs Sebastian Korda
Over 22.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
This could easily backfire as neither of these two Americans are what you'd describe as naturals on clay and they do rely on a big first delivery. But It's reasonably fast in Rome when the weather is good (for a clay court) and the sun is shining today in Italy's capital. These two decent servers have played each other just the one time before which was on slower clay in Monte carlo last season, and that saw Fritz win 7-6,7-5. He won 83% of his 1st serve points (and saved both BPs faced) in his first match here, Korda won 78% of first serves and saved 3 of 5 BPs faced (against arguably a tougher opponent). I think breaks will be few here.
12:30 St Pauli v VfL Osnabruck
St Pauli
50 WIN
@1.20
Win
10
Second placed St Pauli are just a point behind leaders Holstein and with just two matches left a win at home here against already relegated (and bottom of the table) Osnabruck would be a huge plus. They've won 10 of 15 at home (W10,D5,L1), the best record in the division. The visitors have the worst away record, just 2 wins on their travels (W2,D5,L9). The hosts have won 5 of their last 8 games, Osnabruck have lost 5 of their last 8.
11:30 Dayana Yastremska vs Aryna Sabalenka
Over 18.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
This could go horribly wrong, because these two are hard to read but if Yastremska (ranked 33) can fire she has the game to trouble world #2 Sabalenka who has a patchy record here in Rome. The 26yo from Belarus is just 6-6 here in her career and in fact is 0-3 vs Yastremska in her career (though all 3 matches were 3+ years ago). Sabalenka has struggled to beat most players easily of late so I'll risk Overs here.
10:00 Maria Sakkari vs Anhelina Kalinina
Maria Sakkari
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.30
Win
15
World #8 Sakkari really should win here as although the 28yo Greek has found today's opponent Kalinina (ranked 31) pretty tough in both prior meetings (the H2H is 1-1 and both matches took a deciding set) she has a decent record in Rome. Her 27yo Ukrainian did make the final here 12 months ago in which she had to retire but she's not been in great form lately and played just 2 games in her first match here as her opponent had to retire in R1.
Over 20.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
I would expect world #8 Sakkari to winhere but the 28yo Greek has a tendency to either blow opponents away or struggle. And she's found today's opponent Kalinina (ranked 31) pretty tough in both prior meetings. The H2H is 1-1 and both matches took a deciding set. The 27yo Ukrainian made the final here 12 months ago in which she had to retire. It's hard to read the form she's in given her opponent had to retuire in R1 but we know she likes it here so I think this number is too low.
Anhelina Kalinina 4.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.83
Lose
-50
I think world #8 Sakkari wins here but the 28yo Greek has found today's opponent Kalinina (ranked 31) pretty tough in both prior meetings. The H2H is 1-1 and both matches took a deciding set. The 27yo Ukrainian made the final here 12 months ago in which she had to retire. It's hard to read the form she's in given her opponent had to retuire in R1 but we know she likes it here but I feel she can keep this tight.
Subtotal-218
11 May 2024
20:35 8:35 Warwick
Kingston Pride
Daily Racing
64 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR
@1.53
Void
0
Clearly not great value wise but Nicky Henderson's 5yo Kingston Hill gelding is the pick, despite a penalty. Won his only Irish PtP start (April 2023, the form of that race looking decent - second placed The Enabler has won 2 bumpers, including a Listed one, for G Elliott) then bought by new connections for €200,000. Built on a promising Rules debut on the AW at Lingfield to readily land the odds at Exeter last month. Surely more to come and should take all the beating.
18:00 Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Jan Lennard Struff
Stefanos Tsitsipas
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.53
Win
26
I do feel this will not be an easy match for world #8 Tsitsipas (see my Games Won and Total tips) as Struff (ranked 41) is in good form. But the clay is where the 25yo Greek tends to shine and he's an excellent record here in Rome, 15-6 career with hislast two defeats to eventual winner Mdevedev in last year's SF and before that to Djokovic in the final in 2022.
Over 23.50
Total Games
50 WIN
@2.00
Win
50
A big number for a clay court match but it's reasonably fast here in Rome for the red stuff (and warm weather today, which helps the speed). And this match up has been tough for world #8 Tsitsipas in teh past, although he leads the H2H with Struff (ranked 41) 4-3, they've played 5 TBs in those 7 matches and each has won a set in their last 5, incl. two on clay. The issue I have with the 25yo Greek is his inability to break serve consistently and that single handed backhand can break down. Struff is in decent form and the tall 34yo German's big serve has held up well in his clay swing so far. He really should've beaten Alcaraz in Madrid and beat Cachin in straight sets in his first match here. Tsitsipas is playing his first match here in Rome and this could go all the way.
Jan Lennard Struff 2.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
It's reasonably fast here in Rome for clay (warm weather today, which helps the speed) and this match up has been tough for world #8 Tsitsipas previously. Although he leads the H2H with Struff (ranked 41) 4-3, they've played 5 TBs in those 7 matches and each has won a set in their last 5, incl. two on clay. Indeed, their last meeting was in Madrid last year which Struff won. The 25yo Greek just doesn't break serve consistently enough I feel and with Struff is in decent form this should be close. The tall 34yo German's big serve has held up well in his clay swing so far and with Tsitsipas playing his first match here in Rome (Struff should be used to conditions with a straight sets win under his belt already) this could be tight.
14:30 Beatriz Haddad Maia vs Madison Keys
Beatriz Haddad Maia
Win Match
50 WIN
@2.10
Lose
-50
At odds against I'll take a stab at Haddad Maia (ranked 13) here as the 27yo Brazilian seems to be getting back to top form. She made the QFs here last year and beat Keys (ranked 16) in their only prior H2H, on a hard court (which would favour the power game of Keys) at the WTA Elite Finals. Keys doesn't have a great record on clay, 14-9 since 2022 but 8 of those wins have come in quick conditions (Charleston, Madrid), It's not slow here but I do feel it will suit Haddad Maia more. She's 30-12 on clay since 2022 and thislooks worth a go.
Subtotal-24
10 May 2024
19:30 Como v Cosenza
Como
50 WIN
@1.30
Lose
-50
A win here and second placed Como seal runner up spot and automatic promotion to Serie A. They've won 12 of their 18 home games so far this season (W12,D4,L2) - third best record in the division. They've won 6 of their last 8 league games (W6,D2,L0). Today's visitors Cosenza are 10th and have nothing to play for here. They've won 6 of 18 on their travels (W6,D6,L6) but their last 2 wins on the road were against teams in the lower reaches of the table.
19:30 Spezia v Venezia
Venezia
50 WIN
@3.40
Lose
-50
A small risk on Venezia as the third placed side need a win to try and seal automatic promotion back to Serie A (they must win and see second placed Como fail to win). Spezia (15th) have won just 5 of their 18 home games this season (W5,D6,L5) whilst the visitors have won 8 of 18 on their travels (W8,D4,L6). Venzia have won 5 of their last 8 games (W5,D1,L2) Spezia have just 2 wins in their last 8 games (W2,D5,l1).
19:00 Maastricht v VVV
Maastricht
50 WIN
@1.83
Win
41
With a win here, 9th placed Maastricht can sneak into the promotion playoff spots and they're certainly in good form with 5 wins in their last 8 league games (W5,D1,L2). They have won 7 of their 18 home games (W7,D5,L6). Visitors VVV are 12th and can only finish mid-table. They've lost 6 of their last 8 matches (W2,D0,L6) and have lost 9 of their 18 away games this term (W3,D6,L9).
19:00 Willem II v Telstar
Willem II
50 WIN
@1.44
Win
22
Willem have already sealed promotion to the Dutch top flight but I think they'll be looking to win the title here and they're just a point above second placed Roda. Visitors Telstar are 17th and have nothing to play for and their hosts have won 13 of their 18 home games so far (W13,D3,L2) . The visitors have the second worst away record in the division, just 2 wins on their travels all season (W2,D3,L13) and just 3 wins in their last 10 matches altogether.
16:35 4:35 Ascot
Teraabb
Daily Racing
25 EW
@4.33
Lose
-50
Charlie Felllowes' 3yo gelding got off teh mark at the fifth time of asking when making a successful handicap debut on his reappearance at Newbury (7f, good to soft) 3 weeks ago. He stayed on nicely to lead close home so it would seem this step up to 1m should suit. Spencer booked again and although raised 3 pounds this is a drop in class.
15:30 Alexander Shevchenko vs Karen Khachanov
Alexander Shevchenko 3.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@2.25
Lose
-50
I’m never very lucky with Shevchenko (ranked 60) but I don’t feel the 23yo “recently converted” Kazakh should be getting a head start here. He beat Khachanov (ranked 18) in their only prior H2H indoors in Metz last season, conditions that are not especially fast. Neither player has great clay form but Shevchenko did pretty well here last season (his only previous appearance) beating Baez (as a Lucky Loser) then taking Sinner to a decider via a TB. Khachanov has rather struggled here, just 4-6 in his career and has lost his first match here 4 times in 6 visits.
15:00 Miomir Kecmanovic vs Casper Ruud
Casper Ruud
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.18
Lose
-50
Not great odds but the fact is that despite his odd defeat to FAA in Madrid, world #7 Ruud is in good form back on the clay and the 25yo Norwegian ??" who’s made the SFs here in Rome three years in a row (lost twice to Djokovic, last year in a bit of an epic to Rune) has won all 3 clay H2Hs vs Kecmanovic (ranked 58) in straight sets. He’s 13-3 on the dirt already this year, his 24yo Serbian opponent is just 4-4 (7-9 in the last 12 months) and just 1-7 since Jan 2022 vs top 20 opponents.
13:30 1:30 Chester
Percys Lad
Daily Racing
25 EW
@11.00
Win
300
The Kubler's 6yo Sir Percy gelding nabbed an impressive win at Yarmouth on debut for the yard a couple of years ago (having been with Eve Johnson Houghton) and I've followed him ever since. He's a win and 2 places from 3 runs over this C&D and was a decent second of 15 in a handicap at Newmarket (7f, GF) on his seasonal return 22 days ago, running on. Been nudged up a pound which looks fair but should strip fitter for that run and although an outside stall could make life awkward, I think that's reflected in the price.
Subtotal113
09 May 2024
19:15 Ana Bogdan vs Marketa Vondrousova
Ana Bogdan 4.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@1.80
Win
40
Taking a shot at Bogdan with a big spread as Bogdan (ranked 63) is very much a clay-courter, the 31yo Romanian is 39-18 on the dirt since 2022. She's been in decent form recently, knocking out world #34 Fernandez here LTO. World #6 Vondrousova is in indifferent form of late and recently announced her divorce so off-court issues could be affecting her game
16:00 Nicolas Moreno De Alboran vs Botic Van De Zandschulp
Nicolas Moreno De Alboran 2.50
Games Won
50 WIN
@2.05
Win
52
Moreno de Alboran (ranked 136) may not have a slew of marquee victories on his resume but he’s been winning matches on clay and has a decent first serve, along with a spin-heavy forehand that should work on clay and be effective against an opponent that has had a tough time finding the range consistently with his groundstrokes. VDZ is ’s out of the top 100, in really poor form, leaking errors with regularity on the court, and has losses to players in the 50-100 ranking range on surfaces that aren’t even their best
16:00 Roberto Carballes Baena vs Christopher OConnell
Roberto Carballes Baena
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.50
Void
0
The key for me here with two players, neither of whom has a great record here in Rome, is that RCB (ranked 62) is the more reliable player ??" certainly on clay ??" and O’Connell (ranked 66) is just in a bit of a slump at present. The court speed and conditions herein Rome just suit the solidity and consistency of the veteran Spaniard so I’ll take him here.
14:35 2:35 Chester
Grey Cuban
Daily Racing
25 EW
@5.00
Lose
-50
Hugo Palmer's 3yo son of Havana Grey finally got off the mark at sixth time of asking LTO in decent style in an 8.6f Wolverhampton novice heat on his reappearance last month, pulling 6 lengths clear. Drops back in trip for handicap debut but looks competitive from a low draw with Will Buick booked to steer.
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14:30 Arthur Rinderknech vs Francesco Passaro
Arthur Rinderknech
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.80
Lose
-50
Although not blessed with great form at present I have to take Rinderknech (ranked 73) at this price as the 26yo Frenchman is pretty decent on clay and is 27-9 on dirt since 2021 vs players ranked outside the top 100. He's won 2 clay court Challenger events in that span too. Passaro (ranked 240) came through Qualies and the 23yo Italian is more of a fixture on the Challenger tour. He's 3-11 vs top 100 ranked players since 2022, the form of his 3 wins rather questionable. Rinderknech beat Cobolli in R1 here last year and i think he takes out another local player in 2024.
13:50 1:50 Huntingdon
Kay Tara Tara
Daily Racing
25 EW
@11.00
Lose
-50
I saw Alan King's 6yo Kayf Tara mare finish runner up on her second bumper start at Ascot having won on debut and the horse that beat her was narrowly beaten in a decent handicap on Weds at Kelso. She made a successful start over timber over this C&D (good) in October then ran well to place on her next 3 starts (incl when runner up at Ayr to a nice horse of Lucinda Russell's now rated 125). It was a poor run in the Mares' EBF Final at Newbury in March but I'm prepared to forgive that back on the scene of her last success on what looks a very workable mark.
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10:00 Dusan Lajovic vs Lorenzo Sonego
Lorenzo Sonego
Win Match
50 WIN
@1.91
Lose
-50
Apart from a run to the R16 in 2020 Lajovic (ranked 64) hasn't got a great record here in Rome (9-9 since 2014, 3 of his wins in Qualies), the 33yo Serbian I think prefers faster clay conditions (like Madrid). Sonego (ranked 47) has been a bit up and down this season (perhaps more down that up) but the 28yo Italian - in front of a partisan home crowd of course - has won the last 3 H2Hs vs Lajovic (it's 3-1 career) and has a decent record here. He's 7-4 in Rome since 2020, his defeats to Djokovic, Ruud, Tsitsispas and Shapovalov.
Subtotal-108
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