TheGamblerTips

Posting tips on football and horse racing - sharing my logic and knowledge with you all to beat the bookies. Happy to provide tips on request if you message on Twitter.

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TheGamblerTips's Tips History

28 April 2024

17:55 5:55 Southwell

New Image

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@4.00

Win

300

NEW IMAGE now has 2 solid runs under his belt after a 2 year lay off and this Frankel gelding will be looking to get his career back on track after showing promise. Step-up to 7f should benefit from pedigree and take another step in the right direction.

15:10 3:10 Southwell

Sardinian Warrior

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@3.25

Win

225

SARDINIAN WARRIOR is well respected by connections and already has a Derby entry. The Gosden yard will be looking for a step forward on second start today if he's to go for the Derby in a months time. Best in the field on pedigree with mare winning 2 group 1s in her career over 6f and 1m making this the standout in a well bred field.

14:10 2:10 Southwell

Robusto

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@2.00

Lose

-100

ROBUSTO ran well in stable debut earlier this month finishing 2nd over course and distance, and ahead by 2 lengths of the 82 rated favourite. This Churchill gelding has been really consistent over 1m4+ and proved good merit for this trip last time out here and should go well again with Crowley on board again.

23 April 2024

14:45 2:45 Epsom Downs

Chief Little Rock

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@1.91

Lose

-100

CHIEF LITTLE ROCK finished 14 lengths clear ahead of ARABIC LEGEND last time out last season so I'm sure will make a good go of it here on reappearance for the O'Brien and Moore team who have won 23% of rides in the last 14 days.

17 April 2024

16:10 4:10 Newmarket

Tequila

Daily Racing

50 EW

@9.50

Lose

-100

TEQUILA is a well bred horse from last years' winning team and could go well again today with Davis winning 25% of their runners in the last 14 days. Lofty entries in class 2 and 1 company so they must think a lot of this filly.

15:00 3:00 Newmarket

Ottoman Fleet

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@3.50

Win

250

OTTOMAN FLEET has form figures at Newmarket of 1211 and has two runs in Dubai under his belt, albeit underwhelming, as preparation for this. Appleby Buick combination usually prolific here so should go well again in this.

16 April 2024

15:30 3:30 Newmarket

Boiling Point

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@2.00

Lose

-100

BOILING POINT has the strongest form and at this track and distance. RPRs at least 15 higher than the rest of the field and on level weight in this event I'll be surprised if this isn't odds on favourite tomorrow.

15 April 2024

17:30 5:30 Kempton

Reyaadah Star

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@2.38

Lose

-100

REYAADAH STAR looks finely poised to improve for this trip - sired by Derby winner New Approach and dam was also placed in numerous listed events over 1m+. In this week field, I expect the quality to shine through.

15:20 3:20 Windsor

Reaching High

Daily Racing

50 EW

@13.00

Lose

-100

REACHING HIGH is superbly bred for this trip and further and is yet to really test his stamina. This will be his first run since gelding and over a far better distance for him so I expect him to be in the frame for the king.

14 April 2024

17:00 5:00 Plumpton

Crazierthandaisy

Daily Racing

100 WINNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.00 used instead of 1.80 takenBOG

@2.00

Win

100

CRAZIERTHANDAISY ran on well to take 3rd on debut and I'm sure the extra furlong will be a big positive which will put this Walk In The Park mare into the winning frame here.

16:07 4:07 Hereford

Montecam

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@1.40

Win

MONTECAM has RPRs 20 higher than anyone else in the field hence the justified favouritism. One for the accumulator probably as these odds will only get shorter with Nico almost guaruntee da win on this one.

14:40 2:40 Plumpton

Davidoc

Daily Racing

100 WINNOTETip made at odds of 2.20 on 14/04 at 09:370.00 deduction for Drishogue@101.00 withdrawn at 10:010.25 deduction for Sanitiser @3.500 withdrawn at 10:010.00 deduction for Grain Trade @101.000 withdrawn at 12:030.20 deduction for Lets Sail Away @4.500 withdrawn at 14:23R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 1.20 x (1-0.45) = 1.66

@1.66

Win

DAVIDOC is having his first run since wind op which typically helps improve a horses form and already has the best form in the field with RPR ratings at least 15 higher than the nearest competition.

14:22 2:22 Hereford

Insurrection

Daily Racing

100 WINNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@1.62

Win

INSURRECTION has far superior form to the others in this event, although not winning since running over this distance this Getaway gelding has been impressive in the ratings. Again Cobden on board chasing some east wins here today.

13:47 1:47 Hereford

Toothless

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@2.75

Lose

-100

TOOTHLESS should go off favourite here as he has placed 2nd in both starts over fences around this distance with the highest RPRs in the field and claims 2lbs on FISTON and 4lbs on CHANCEUX. Cobden hasn't had the best week at Aintree so will be looking to assert in this.

13 April 2024

19:50 7:50 Dundalk

Huxley

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@2.20

Lose

-100

HUXLEY is a 4 race maiden with some positive RPRs especially up in distance this Galileo colt should thrive. Yard and jockey haven't had a winner in 2 weeks but I expect this one to be at the forefront.

17:50 5:50 Dundalk

Mayfair

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@1.73

Lose

-100

MAYFAIR has two runs under her belt and posted 80+ RPRs in both on soft or worse ground. Today the ground will be a bit quicker and there's no other horse that can match her experience in the field so should dominate this maiden.

17:00 5:00 Aintree

Found A Fifty

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@2.75

Win

175

FOUND A FIFTY came second in the Arkle but 4 lengths ahead of Il Etait Temps who won confincingly at Aintree this Thursday in a group 1 by 8 lengths. That form works out well for this one to take the win in this shorter group 1 race.

16:55 4:55 Yarmouth

Gold Aura

Daily Racing

50 EWNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@9.00

Win

GOLD AURA is worth an EW bet as has finished 3rd and 2nd in last two starts with the hood applied which they use again today. RPRs on both those starts but her firmly in the mix and she's rated to go well in this group. I expect her to come late and at least place.

16:25 4:25 Yarmouth

Fighter Command

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@2.10

Lose

-100

FIGHTER COMMAND has plenty to like on paper and unlike the godolphin runner has a good first run to his name as well. The godolphin runner could be anything and is bred equally as well as this one, but having come 2nd with a good opening RPR in December I'm backing this Gosden trained colt.

13:20 1:20 Aintree

Bold Endeavour

Daily Racing

50 EW

@21.00

Lose

-100

BOLD ENDEAVOUR excels over this distance and has always placed in big fields over 3m. Top jockey this time rather than second string he had at Cheltenham so should go better than when placing 4th 3 lengths behind MONMIRAL.

12 April 2024

19:30 7:30 Southwell

Alhattan

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@1.83

Lose

-100

ALHATTAN has shown promise on both starts and now has top jockey Jim Crowley in saddle for the first time. Good RPRs in first two now handicapping and looking to take advantage of weight allowance.

18:00 6:00 Southwell

Moon Man

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@2.88

Lose

-100

MOON MAN is just about my selection in this one as torn between this and WARRIORS DREAM as they both have good first runs under their belts. Argument for this one is it started and settled better last time and has posted the highest RPR under an amateur jockey. Today with Tudhope they should perform better and be able to take a better line here if the other starts slowly again.

11 April 2024

20:00 8:00 Chelmsford City

Cuban Melody

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@2.38

Lose

-100

CUBAN MELODY is my favoured of the 2 in this one as although the current favourite has 2 runs under her belt, they have both come on the straight track of Newmarket so I don't see that experience helping her too much here. This pick however has a good first performance at Kempton just 2 weeks ago when finishing 2nd so has had a go at some tight cornering and may have an advantage over todays conditions.

18:00 6:00 Chelmsford City

Cervaro Della Sala

Daily Racing

100 WINR4Deductions based on standard industry rates given the odds of each withdrawn horse at time of first withdrawal following your betNR

@2.38

Void

CERVARO DELLA SALA has cheekpieces added as well as top jockey Oisin Murphy for the first time and both should encourage a better performance at this distance. Has performed okay in other starts and this small field doesn't have too much to shout about so I'd lay my hat here.

16:50 4:50 Southwell

Savvy Brilliance

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@1.83

Lose

-100

SAVVY BRILLIANCE has proven his stamina will be well up for this with 3 wins in a row at 1m4f, 1m6f and 2m which he faces again here. Having won here already and posted RPRs higher than the field, I think they should take this one as well.

15:30 3:30 Aintree

Bob Olinger

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@3.00

Lose

-100

BOB OLINGER seems to have proven the better stamina having won on last two attempts over 2m4f and finished 5 lengths ahead of IMPAIRE ET PASSÉ when they last met. Should be a close run race between those two but I'm backing Bob to come out on top again.

14:20 2:20 Aintree

Sir Gino

Daily Racing

100 WINNAPNOTETip made at odds of 1.91 on 11/04 at 07:530.10 deduction for Nurburgring@9.00 withdrawn at 10:49R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 0.91 x (1-0.10) = 1.82Best Odds Guaranteed SP 2.10 used instead of 1.82 BOG

@2.10

Win

110

SIR GINO has won on both starts for the Henderson yard by over 10 lengths and is improving each time. Impossible to ignore this classy horse in his first season. Yet to handle soft ground, but it seems unlikely to slow this one and sire was a listed winner on heavy ground so positive signs already.

13:45 1:45 Aintree

Grey Dawning

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@2.00

Lose

-100

GREY DAWNING is proving rather consistent over fences since switching in No ember with form figures of 31211. The best of those have all come on soft ground and 2 over this distance so conditions should be just about perfect for him to succeed again and make the hatrick.

09 April 2024

20:00 8:00 Southwell

Eleftheria

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@3.50

Lose

-100

ELEFTHERIA will have fitness on her side after winning impressively on return last month whereas the majority of these are making their reappearance today. Drawn fairly wide so it will be up to Ryan to push for the centre of the track early on the turn and push her forward if they're to be successful in this. Good possibilities to get a double.

18:00 6:00 Southwell

Robusto

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@3.75

Lose

-100

ROBUSTO is making yard debut and Crowley is a very positive booking for this first attempt at a new trip having won 3 out of his last 4 AW attempts at 1m 4f. Won fresh last season after a 9 month lay off so interesting now back with a new trainer after 6 months.

14:15 2:15 Thirsk

Atherstone Warrior

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@3.50

Win

250

ATHERSTONE WARRIOR I believe will end up going off as favourite since finishing 2 lengths ahead of DUKES OF HAATHER that day. It is thought that the latter struggled to get going whereas this one was read prominent which should give an advantage when choosing ground in these conditions here.

08 April 2024

14:30 2:30 Lingfield

Cynosure

Daily Racing

100 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 2.38 used instead of 1.91 takenBOG

@2.38

Win

137

CYNOSURE is having his first run this year and since being gelded. Posted an RPR of 87 last time out over course and distance which puts him 10 higher than any in this field so he should go forward and win this comfortably.

07 April 2024

15:30 3:30 Leopardstown

Illinois

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@2.20

Lose

-100

ILLINOIS looks to be the best runner in this field as DEEPONE carries a 5lb penalty. Despite not having the highest RPRs, ILLINOIS is the only horse with experience of this trip and should take advantage of the penalty on the top rated horse.

14:38 2:33 Bath

Haya

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@3.00

Lose

-100

HAYA has the best form of the field and jockey + trainer are both in good form (26% and 25% win rate over last 14 days respectively) meaning this is worth a go on ground none of the horses have faced before. This horse edge's stamina in pedigree, but there's nothing to go on for the ground in this field other than that.

13:15 1:15 Leopardstown

Autumn Winter

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@1.62

Lose

-100

AUTUMN WINTER has 2 runs worth of experience at the back end of 2023 and will be ready to make his mark over this mile. Top pedigree by Galileo in a very inexperienced field - should be first win here.

06 April 2024

16:25 4:25 Kempton

Notable Speech

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@1.73

Win

NOTABLE SPEECH has won on both starts at this course and over this distance with an RPR 15 higher than the market rival. This one has a 2000 guineas entry and is yet to be tested having comfortably beaten a listed winner last time out and I don't think there'll be too much challenge from this either to make it 3-3 on the record.

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14:45 2:45 Uttoxeter

Blue Beach

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@4.20

Lose

-100

BLUE BEACH will likely go off as favourite and has posted consistently the best jumping and RPRs in this field. With Cobden on board - who has won 23% of his rides in The last 14 days - I think this mate should get her first win of 2024.

04 April 2024

16:30 4:25 Lingfield

Mahboob

Daily Racing

100 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@1.44

Win

MAHBOOB won here on his sole start and the horse who finished second behind him that day reappeared with a 4th in a listed and an RPR of 96. This horse is still finding his way as a novice but I would expect it to be in stronger company soon and should win this without drama.

15:35 3:35 Southwell

Highlands Legacy

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@1.67

Win

HIGHLANDS LEGACY was going well when falling last time out and before then finished 2nd on heavy ground. Should bounce back and go well in this.

03 April 2024

18:00 6:00 Kempton

Sahara Snow

Daily Racing

50 EWNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 8.00 used instead of 5.50 takenBOG

@8.00

Win

437

SAHARA SNOW has the most striking pedigree over this trip for me. Sea The Stars is well known as a top sire for stamina horses but the dam is also a G1 winner over 1m2f and a G2 over 1m4f. I think this is the most interesting horse, but the market will always be swayed by whichever Buick is on so this one could go under the radar (as the odds suggest) and be the better pick of those two on debut.

16:50 4:50 Kempton

Brioni

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@1.67

Win

BRIONI sets a good standard finishing 2nd here last time out so Rossa Ryan should ride him as the best horse in this race and dictate terms from there. Should comfortably win at this standard.

15:25 3:25 Catterick

Eye Of Dubai

Daily Racing

100 WINNAPNOTENon runners at 10.0 or more so no R4 deduction

@2.38

Win

138

EYE OF DUBAI is running for the first time with a new yard and since being gelded. The ground is set to be testing for all these horses but he has done well finishing second on soft before so I suggest this one will handle it best.

02 April 2024

19:30 7:30 Wolverhampton

Baileys Warrior

Daily Racing

50 EW

@7.50

Win

BAILYS WARRIOR has form figures of 2221 this year in races over 2m which she faces today with Oisin Murphy on board for the first time. Good indicators for EW value.

19:00 7:00 Wolverhampton

Bella Bisbee

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@1.62

Lose

-100

BELLA BISBEE has finished 2nd and 1st in two starts winning here last time out with an RPR 10 higher than any competition she faces today. Should be run as the best horse in the race and dictate terms around her.

15:45 3:45 Pontefract

Jamess Delight

Daily Racing

100 WINNAPNOTEBest Odds Guaranteed SP 3.25 used instead of 2.88 takenBOG

@3.25

Win

225

JAMES'S DELIGHT is having his first run since gelding which tends to get a horse more focussed on task. They will be running in at least soft which not many horses have experience of, it this one has posted a credible RPR rating on that surface so gets the nod.

01 April 2024

17:00 5:00 Fairyhouse

Yeah Man

Daily Racing

50 EW

@10.00

Lose

-100

YEAH MAN could provide some key indicators for this one having won the grand national trial at Haydock last time out to prove good stamina for this one - no others can match that form but as we know, anything can happen in these big events. Worth an EW go.

16:20 4:20 Fairyhouse

Saint Sam

Daily Racing

100 WINNAP

@2.00

Lose

-100

SAINT SAM won on only run in 2024 so far which had heavy conditions by 8 lengths easily positing the best RPR of the field. Is the only none of the others in the field have won on heavy ground - some have even struggled to compete in those conditions so should take an early lead and remain steady for the duration.

16:10 4:10 Plumpton

Saladins Son

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@1.44

Lose

-100

SALADINS SON should win this fairly comfortably, and I think the better odds out there would be for KAITUNA RIVER to win betting without favourite.

14:55 2:55 Kempton

Dubai Honour

Daily Racing

100 WINNOTETip made at odds of 2.38 on 01/04 at 09:520.10 deduction for Flying Honours@7.00 withdrawn at 10:35R4 Adjusted Odds = 1 + 1.38 x (1-0.10) = 2.24

@2.24

Win

124

DUBAI HONOUR won both reappearance runs in group 1 company last year in Australia with Ryan Moore on board. This is down to be the prep race for the Curragh Gold Cup next month so could be Moore's only ride on him this year as he'll surely be on an O'Brien horse for the rest.

14:10 2:10 Huntingdon

Symbolic Spirit

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@3.00

Lose

-100

SYMBOLIC SPIRIT runs for only the second time for the Skelton yard and boasts the best RPRs so far - adding the yard's number 1 jockey for today should educate them more on what to expect from this mare.

13:05 1:05 Huntingdon

Rock House

Daily Racing

100 WIN

@1.67

Lose

-100

ROCK HOUSE looks to return to early winning ways with first time cheekpieces today which should improve this gelding. By far the superior horse in this event anyway so should win here.

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Tips history contains the last 35 days tips.

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